Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) had a classic good news, bad news moment this week. The defense contractor crushed its fourth-quarter numbers but left investors wondering about what's coming down the pike.

The quarter itself looked solid. Adjusted earnings came in at $7.23 per share, comfortably ahead of the $6.98 consensus. Revenue hit $11.71 billion, about 1% above what Wall Street expected. The Aeronautics division showed particular strength, coming in 4% above estimates, though Defense lagged 5% below expectations.

Here's where things get interesting. Management's 2026 guidance landed with a thud. They're projecting revenue between $43.50 billion and $44.00 billion, with earnings of $27.40 to $27.90 per share. Those midpoints sit below consensus estimates of $44.27 billion in revenue and $28.91 per share in earnings.

There was one silver lining: the company maintained its 2026 free cash flow outlook of $3.1 billion to $3.5 billion, which aligns with the $3.39 billion consensus.

Analyst Noah Poponak isn't backing away, though. He reiterated his Buy rating with a $576 price target. Shares were trading at $678.74 on Wednesday.