Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) isn't mincing words about what's coming next in Washington: another government shutdown, and it's going to be about immigration enforcement funding. Speaking on his Verdict podcast Monday, Cruz said he's "100%" certain we're headed for a shutdown fight, and it will center squarely on Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Cruz Sees Shutdown as Inevitable

When the podcast host asked if a shutdown was likely, Cruz didn't hesitate. "Yes, 100% yes," he replied. Asked specifically if it would be tied to immigration enforcement, he doubled down: "Yes, yes. Okay. 100%."

Cruz posted about his prediction on X, making clear he believes the collision course is set. He framed the coming fight as Republicans drawing a firm line, saying the party's position will be: "We will not fund ICE under any circumstances and we will shut the government down."

Echoes of Past Shutdowns

Cruz argued the last shutdown was politically calculated, centered on healthcare rather than actual policy concerns. "They also did it to set up the issue of healthcare and the cost of health insurance premiums," he said, claiming Democrats used it to paint Republicans as responsible for rising costs. He suggested Democrats were "forced through really to show his radical base that he was fighting" and that the party's base "was so happy with the shutdown" and "perceive very few downsides" to closing parts of the government.

This time around, Cruz predicted the shutdown would be more limited in scope. Congress has already approved funding for several departments, including Agriculture, Energy, and Veterans Affairs. But agencies like Defense, Labor, Education, Transportation, and Health and Human Services could still face disruptions if negotiations break down.

Democrats Draw Their Own Red Lines

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are making their own threats about DHS funding. Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.) urged the Senate to pass five appropriations bills this week covering priorities like cancer research and child care, while warning Republicans against triggering a shutdown over Department of Homeland Security negotiations.

Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) condemned what she called a "lawless and chaotic" enforcement approach at DHS following the killing of Alex Pretti. She criticized the agency for harming non-criminal immigrants and sometimes detaining citizens, saying she'll oppose DHS funding until reforms are implemented and calling for an independent investigation.

Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.) suggested the DHS bill should be stripped from the broader spending package entirely, warning that keeping it attached makes a shutdown likely.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) called a recent Minneapolis incident "appalling" and said the DHS bill falls short of curbing ICE abuses. He announced he'll vote no and made clear Democrats will block the entire appropriations package if DHS funding stays included.

Senator Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said he'll vote against Homeland Security funding, accusing masked agents of operating without accountability and causing harm, while urging constituents to contact their lawmakers.

Senator Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) was perhaps most blunt, saying he won't support additional funding for ICE or Customs and Border Protection, accusing the agencies of provoking chaos and killing people "in cold blood."

The stakes are high given recent history. The U.S. government just endured its longest shutdown ever in November 2025, which lasted 43 days. Neither party seems eager to relive that experience, but both appear willing to risk it over immigration enforcement policy.