If you're looking for calm, steady earnings reports this week, you might want to look elsewhere. Options markets are signaling extreme volatility for a handful of stocks set to report results over the next few days, with regional banks taking center stage and implied price swings that could reach nearly 50%.
According to market data, options traders are positioning for double-digit moves across a cluster of mostly financial stocks. And with the Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled for Wednesday, there's potential for even wilder price action than the already-elevated expectations suggest.
The key metric here is the implied move, which measures the expected price swing—either up or down—immediately following an earnings announcement. It's derived from at-the-money straddle pricing, essentially reflecting what options traders are willing to pay to bet on volatility. When implied moves climb above 30%, you know traders are expecting fireworks.
Here are ten stocks with implied moves of roughly 30% or higher ahead of their earnings reports this week.
8) High Tide Inc.
- High Tide Inc. (HITI) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 29 after the close. High Tide is the only non-bank on the list, operating cannabis retail stores and e-commerce platforms.
- Analysts expect earnings per share of $0.01 and revenue of $114.95 million.
- The implied move stands at 30.12%.
7) Primis Financial Corp.
- Primis Financial Corp. (FRST) reports fourth-quarter results on Jan. 29 after the market close.
- Estimates call for $1.10 in earnings per share on $34.98 million in revenue.
- Options price in a 31.17% swing.
6) Hope Bancorp, Inc.
- Hope Bancorp, Inc. (HOPE) reports earnings on Jan. 27 before the market opens.
- Wall Street expects 26 cents in earnings per share and $142.91 million in revenue.
- The implied move reaches 32.94%.
5) West Bancorporation, Inc.
- West Bancorporation, Inc. (WTBA) reports fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 29 before the opening bell.
- Analysts expect 57 cents in earnings per share and $26.70 million in revenue.
- Options imply a 35.92% move.
4) First BanCorp
- First BanCorp (FBP), a regional bank operating primarily in Puerto Rico, reports earnings on Jan. 27 before the market opens.
- Consensus calls for 51 cents in earnings per share and $256.65 million in revenue.
- The implied move stands at 39.09%.
3) Provident Financial Services, Inc.
- Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) reports fourth-quarter results on Jan. 27 after the market close.
- Estimates call for earnings per share of 56 cents and revenue of $207.59 million.
- Options imply a 39.22% swing.
2) First Financial Bancorp
- Midwest lender First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) reports earnings on Jan. 28 after the market close.
- Wall Street expects 56 cents in earnings per share on $245.83 million in revenue.
- Options price in a 47.50% move.
1) Capitol Federal Financial, Inc.
- Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. (CFFN) tops the list with earnings due Jan. 28 before the market opens.
- Analysts expect 15 cents in earnings per share and $57.51 million in revenue.
- Options imply a massive 48.48% swing.
The pattern here is hard to miss. Nine of the ten stocks are regional banks, a sector that's been under pressure as investors try to gauge the impact of interest rate policy, credit quality, and deposit dynamics. The outlier is High Tide, a cannabis retailer that carries its own brand of volatility given the regulatory uncertainty surrounding the industry.
What makes this week particularly interesting is the timing. The Fed's policy announcement on Wednesday sits right in the middle of this earnings parade, and any surprises on the rate front could either amplify or dampen the moves that options traders are already pricing in. If the Fed signals a shift in policy direction, these already-elevated volatility expectations could prove conservative.
For traders, these implied moves represent both opportunity and risk. A stock with a 48% implied move isn't necessarily going to move 48%, but it tells you that the market is pricing in serious uncertainty. Sometimes stocks blow past these expectations, sometimes they fall short. The only certainty is that options sellers are demanding a hefty premium to take the other side of these trades.
