Something hasn't happened in nearly four years, and it just showed up in the commodity market with force.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index—a benchmark tracking 23 major commodities—posted its strongest weekly gain since February 2022, jumping 5.3% in the week that just ended. That made it three consecutive weeks of gains and pushed the index up more than 9% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 in the process.

The last time this index moved like that, Russia had just invaded Ukraine. Crude oil vaulted above $100 a barrel. European natural gas prices exploded as Russian supply got cut off. Sweeping sanctions on the Kremlin sent commodity markets into full chaos mode.

That post-pandemic surge, combined with energy prices going vertical, led a lot of Wall Street analysts to declare the return of a commodity supercycle—the kind we saw in the early 2000s.

Except the thesis didn't hold.

Aggressive interest-rate hikes from global central banks cooled demand fast, drained liquidity from financial markets, and pulled most commodity prices back down from their extremes. The era of easy money ended abruptly, and so did the supercycle talk.

Now, nearly four years later, a new commodity boom is unfolding. But the epicenter looks completely different this time.

Precious Metals Are Running The Show Now

Instead of oil and gas driving the rally, it's precious metals.

Gold prices—tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)—topped $5,000 on Monday. Silver, tracked by the iShares Silver Trust (SIL), surged to nearly $110 per ounce.

Over the past year, silver is up 260%. Gold has climbed 85%. Both are on track for their strongest rolling 12-month returns since 1980.

"History is not a guide to the future, but the average increase in gold during four upward cycles was about 300% over 43 months, which means the gold price could reach $6000 by spring," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, said in a recent note.

Gold's rally has been fueled by a weakening U.S. dollar, persistent geopolitical tensions, and rising concerns over political interference in Federal Reserve policy. Those forces have drawn a new wave of private investors into the metal.

Silver's story, though, may be even more interesting.

"Silver has also been boosted by a historic short squeeze and strong retail buying. At the same time, industrial demand—particularly from solar, electrification, and grid infrastructure investment—has tightened the physical market at a time when mine supply growth remains limited," said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group.

Silver's New Role In The AI Infrastructure Buildout

Silver isn't just a precious metal anymore. Its industrial role is becoming central to the artificial intelligence buildout happening right now.

"The global economy is not short of energy. Fossil fuels remain abundant. Renewable capacity continues to expand. From a purely volumetric perspective, there is no immediate energy scarcity," said Jordi Visser, head of AI Macro Nexus research at 22V Research.

"But AI systems do not run on energy in the abstract. They run on electricity delivered with extreme precision, density, and reliability and that distinction is no longer academic," he said.

"Electricity plays the same role in the physical world that memory plays in the digital one. It determines whether theoretical capacity can be turned into real performance," Visser explained.

"Silver sits precisely at this interface," he added.

Natural Gas Just Had Its Biggest Week Ever

The past week also delivered a reminder that energy markets haven't exactly gone quiet.

U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub facility posted their largest one-week gain on record—surging roughly 70%—driven by a historic cold wave, heavy snowfall, and widespread ice storms across large parts of the country.

"The extreme conditions will boost heating demand and put energy infrastructure at risk," warned ING's Manthey on Monday.

"There will be stronger heating demand and supply hits, industrial demand could come under pressure, with some industrials reducing or temporarily halting operations due to weather conditions," she added.

Copper Could Be Next In Line

Copper might be setting up for a sustained bull run, with conditions aligning in ways we haven't seen in years.

Industrial metals are already up about 40% over the past six months—their strongest run since 2021—and some analysts believe the rally is only beginning.

Visser frames the broader macro picture as a clash between abundance and scarcity. Software has become ubiquitous. Code is cheap. AI-driven "vibe coding" is accelerating application development at record speed, while agentic AI threatens to disrupt traditional enterprise software models.

Critical minerals, however—including silver, copper, and rare earths—face structural shortages that could persist for more than a decade.

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang recently described the coming AI-driven infrastructure buildout as an $85 trillion opportunity. Bernstein projects copper shortages stretching into the 2040s.

That imbalance may keep commodities in the spotlight longer than many expect. The supercycle thesis is back, but this time it's wearing a very different outfit.