The two biggest names in payment processing are about to show their cards. Visa Inc. (V) and Mastercard Incorporated (MA) are both scheduled to report earnings results on January 29, and if recent spending data is any indication, consumers are still willing to swipe.

According to JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang, the spending numbers tell a reassuring story. Yes, there's been a slight slowdown in the fourth quarter, but given the tough year-over-year comparison, the fact that spending is holding up this well suggests that the domestic consumer remains healthy. Not exactly the recession warning some market watchers have been bracing for.

Of course, there's a cloud hanging over the sector. Last week, President Donald Trump posted on social media encouraging support for the Credit Card Competition Act. The legislation has understandably fueled some cautious sentiment among investors. But Huang argues that any impact is likely manageable over the long term.

Here's his reasoning: The CCCA is unlikely to gain meaningful traction because it offers no clear material benefit to consumers or merchants relative to the operational burden it would create. Even if the legislation somehow gets implemented, Huang expects Visa and Mastercard to manage the changes with only a modest, long-term economic impact. In other words, don't lose sleep over it.

Bottom line? Huang remains fundamentally constructive on the payment networks, modestly favoring Visa while viewing both companies positively.

What to Expect from Mastercard

For Mastercard's fourth quarter, Huang is projecting revenue of $8.72 billion compared to the consensus estimate of $8.78 billion, and earnings per share of $4.20 versus the Street's expectation of $4.25. Looking ahead to 2025, he expects revenue of $32.71 billion (consensus: $32.78 billion) and EPS of $16.45, which is in line with Street expectations.

The analyst's estimates run about 1% below consensus for both revenue and EPS, likely due to intra-quarter foreign exchange revisions. Meanwhile, his estimates are slightly below Street expectations for U.S. volume growth in the fourth quarter, reflecting roughly 240 basis points of deceleration from the partial Capital One conversion, though underlying spending trends remain generally stable.

For fiscal 2026, Huang expects Mastercard to guide toward the high end of low-double-digit FX-neutral/organic revenue growth, which in JP Morgan's view translates to about 12%.

The Visa Outlook

For Visa, Huang is estimating first-quarter fiscal 2026 net revenues of $10.67 billion versus consensus of $10.68 billion, and EPS of $3.12 compared to the Street view of $3.13. For the full fiscal 2026, he sees revenue of $44.76 billion (consensus: $44.45 billion) and EPS of $12.87 (Street view: $12.80).

His estimates are basically in line with Street expectations for the first quarter, but roughly 1 percentage point ahead for fiscal 2026. Part of that upside comes from foreign exchange assumptions, which add about 50 basis points versus prior projections.

Huang anticipates the near-term fundamentals will remain constructive, supported by early January volume acceleration and second-half growth driven in part by tokenization service pricing. Combined with attractive valuation relative to the market and Visa's historical multiples, the analyst sees a favorable risk-reward heading into the quarter and throughout 2026.

Price Action: Mastercard shares were down 1.38% at $525.50 at the time of publication on Friday. Visa shares were up 0.17%.