Here's a fun setup: Cathie Wood thinks flying taxis are the future and she's buying accordingly. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) thinks they're overpriced dreams and just added Joby Aviation Inc (JOBY) to its short list. Welcome to one of the market's most fascinating disagreements about what happens when sci-fi meets spreadsheets.
In a recent thematic research report, JPMorgan didn't hold back. The bank named Joby one of its top short ideas, arguing that the stock trades at a premium that assumes a future the numbers don't really support yet. We're talking certification timelines, commercialization hurdles, and the small matter of turning a profit someday.
Meanwhile, Wood has been steadily adding Joby shares through ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), most recently in January 2025. For her, this is classic ARK territory: a company sitting at the intersection of autonomous flight, electrification, and platform mobility. It's the kind of convergence bet that makes her portfolio tick.
Why Wood Is Buying
The bull case here isn't hard to understand. Joby has assembled an impressive roster of partners including Toyota Motor Corp (TM), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL), and Uber Technologies Inc (UBER). That's manufacturing expertise, airport access, and ride-hailing distribution all lined up.
And the company isn't just talking about the future in vague terms. Joby has committed to launching commercial operations in Dubai by late 2026, with its first vertiport at Dubai International Airport expected to be ready by the end of the first quarter. The company is installing advanced CAE flight simulators at its Marina, California facility, which is a critical regulatory step for training the first generation of commercial electric vertical takeoff and landing pilots.
On the manufacturing side, Joby is building out a massive 700,000-square-foot facility in Ohio designed to scale production to four aircraft per month by 2027, up from the current two. That's the kind of infrastructure build that signals serious intent.
Why JPMorgan Is Shorting
But here's where it gets interesting. JPMorgan isn't arguing that flying taxis won't happen. They're arguing that Joby's current valuation doesn't match the reality of getting there.
The numbers are stark. Joby trades at around 14x price-to-book, while competitor Archer Aviation Inc (ACHR) trades at 3.5x. Other players in the space like Eve Holding Inc (EVEX) and EHang Holdings Ltd (EH) trade at around 8x and 7x, respectively. That's a significant premium for a company that hasn't generated revenue yet.
Add in the heavy cash burn, ongoing dilution risk, and the fact that consensus analyst ratings lean Hold or Reduce, and you can see why JPMorgan is skeptical. Some price targets sit well below current levels. The bank's view is essentially that the current enterprise value is pricing in adoption rates and margins that industry forecasts don't really support.
The Real Question
So who's right? Well, they might both be. Wood is betting on the destination. JPMorgan is betting against the timeline. Flying taxis will probably arrive at some point. The question is whether Joby's stock is already pricing in 2035 revenues while we're still sitting in 2025.
For investors, this is less about whether electric air taxis are cool (they are) and more about whether the current valuation makes sense given how far away scaled commercial operations actually are. It's a classic tension between disruptive vision and industrial reality, and right now, both sides have passionate believers putting real money behind their convictions.
