When Market Gains Don't Match Main Street Pain

Here's a puzzle for you: Stock markets hit all-time highs in late 2025, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) climbed 15.7% during President Donald Trump's first year back in office, and yet his disapproval rating just hit a new record. What gives?

A fresh Emerson College poll shows Trump's approval rating at 43% in January, up slightly from 41% in December. But his disapproval rating rose to 51%, the highest it's been during his second term. The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street might explain why.

The Affordability Problem

When pollsters asked Americans about their personal finances, the answers weren't pretty. Nearly 39% said they're worse off than they were a year ago. Only 30% feel better off, while 31% say their finances are basically the same.

Even more striking: half of all voters report living paycheck to paycheck. That's not exactly the picture of prosperity you'd expect when the stock market is breaking records.

The financial strain shows up in how people view the country's direction. Among those living paycheck to paycheck, 64% think America is on the wrong track, while just 36% see things headed the right way. For those living more comfortably, the split is almost even—51% see the right direction, 49% don't.

Overall, 56% of respondents said the country is on the wrong track, up from 48% a year ago. The "right direction" crowd dropped from 52% to 44% over the same period.

What This Means for Republicans in 2026

Trump's elevated disapproval numbers could spell trouble for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections. The poll shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot 48% to 42%.

Independent voters are leaning Democratic by a significant margin—50% to 28%. There's also a notable gender gap: women favor Democratic candidates 53% to 38%, while men tilt Republican 47% to 42%.

The Favorability Rankings

The survey also measured how voters view key officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and several Trump cabinet members. Here's how they stacked up with favorable versus unfavorable ratings:

• Jerome Powell: 45%/27%
• Marco Rubio: 43%/41%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 43%/46%
• JD Vance: 42%/46%
• Kristi Noem: 38%/45%
• Pete Hegseth: 37%/43%
• Scott Bessent: 36%/35%

Powell came out on top with a net favorability of +18 points. Rubio and Bessent managed positive ratings, while other cabinet members landed in negative territory. Vice President Vance's negative 4-point net favorability could be concerning if he's eyeing a 2028 presidential run.

The Stock Market Disconnect

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week, Trump predicted the stock market could double "in a relatively short period of time." The SPY is currently trading at $688.98, up 0.9% year-to-date in 2026 and 13.6% over the past 52 weeks.

But here's the thing: stock market strength in 2025 clearly didn't translate into higher approval ratings. The reality is that many Americans don't own substantial stock portfolios. When you're living paycheck to paycheck, watching the S&P 500 hit new records doesn't do much for your grocery bill or rent payment.

The poll asked voters about everything from ICE to tensions in Venezuela and Greenland. While respondents opposed using military force abroad and expressed negative views of ICE, it's the affordability crisis that seems to be the real weight dragging down Trump's numbers. Even if the market does double, issues like the cost of living and international relations appear to be what voters actually care about when they rate the president.