Here's an interesting disconnect: President Donald Trump just wrapped up his first year back in office with the stock market up more than 15%, but his approval rating is tanking. According to a new poll from The Economist/YouGov, voters seem a lot more concerned about what they're paying at the checkout counter than what their 401(k) is doing.

The Numbers Look Rough

The poll, conducted between Jan. 16 and Jan. 19, puts Trump's approval at 37% with disapproval at 57%. That's a net approval of -20, the lowest of his second term and the second-lowest in the poll's entire tracking history of Trump in the White House. Only November 2017's -21 was worse.

What's particularly striking is the erosion among Republican voters. Trump's net approval with Republicans fell from -14 in the previous week's poll to the current reading, with his approval among GOP voters dropping from 88% to 79% and disapproval rising from 11% to 17%. That +62 net approval from Republicans represents the lowest of his second term.

The poll covered a wide range of topics, including abolishing ICE, the shooting of Renee Good, military action in Venezuela, potential moves involving Iran and Greenland, the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, and the Federal Reserve. Let's focus on the issues most relevant to markets and the economy.

Tariffs Are Hitting Wallets

Turns out, people notice when prices go up. A full 69% of voters said they're paying higher prices because of Trump's tariffs. Even 54% of Republican voters acknowledge they're feeling the pinch.

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the tariffs, and most voters (50%) think the court will allow them to stand, while only 18% expect the justices to strike them down. But here's the thing: just because voters think the tariffs will survive doesn't mean they want them to. Half of respondents want the Supreme Court to strike down the tariffs, while only 31% want them to remain.

That's a pretty clear signal that tariff policy is a political liability, even if the legal framework holds up.

Powell Beats Trump on Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve remains a hot topic, especially with Trump's frequent commentary on interest rates and an ongoing Justice Department investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell.

When asked about interest rates, 48% of voters want the Fed to lower them, while 18% prefer rates to stay the same and just 3% want higher rates. The desire for lower rates breaks sharply along party lines: 65% of Republicans want cuts compared to only 35% of Democrats.

The investigation into Powell isn't popular with the broader public. Only 32% strongly or somewhat approve of it, while 38% disapprove. Support is predictably partisan—57% of Republicans approve versus just 14% of Democrats. Independent voters are skeptical, with 38% disapproving and 26% approving, while 36% aren't sure.

Here's where it gets interesting: when voters were asked who they trust more to set interest rates, Powell crushed Trump 44% to 18%. Even among the subset of voters who specifically want lower rates, Trump only edges out Powell 30% to 27%. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of presidential control over monetary policy.

Global Ambitions Face Skepticism

Trump's various international proposals aren't resonating with voters either. When it comes to Greenland, only 9% support using military force while 72% oppose it. Even the idea of purchasing Greenland without military action only garners 29% support, with 51% still opposed.

Among Republicans, 58% support purchasing Greenland—a majority, but hardly overwhelming. Support drops to 24% among Independents and just 5% among Democrats.

On Venezuela, 54% of voters oppose using military force to invade. Only 25% think the U.S. should take Venezuelan oil, and a plan for the U.S. to help run the country for a few years generates a meager 17% support.

When Markets Don't Matter Enough

Here's the paradox: Trump's low approval ratings come despite major stock market indexes hitting new all-time highs in late 2025. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500, gained 15.7% during the first year of Trump's second term.

Markets did wobble on Tuesday when Trump made comments about tariffs and Greenland, with the Magnificent Seven stocks losing $700 billion in value. But they rebounded Wednesday after Trump shared positive news about Greenland negotiations. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust climbed 1.2% to $685.40 on Wednesday, recovering from a 1.5% drop on Tuesday that marked the biggest one-day decline since November 2025.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday, Trump predicted stock markets will trade higher and suggested the market could double "in a relatively short period of time."

That would be great for investors, but the polling suggests it might not move the needle on approval ratings. The market's strength in 2025 didn't win over voters in most polls, and the data indicates that issues like affordability and international relations are what's really driving public opinion. You can't eat stock returns, and apparently you can't campaign on them either when people are worried about grocery prices and global instability.