One year ago this Tuesday, Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second presidential term, promising the "golden age of America" would begin on inauguration day. So how's that going, at least from an investment perspective? Let's look at the scoreboard.

The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story

Stock markets hit fresh all-time highs throughout 2025 and were trading higher a year after Trump's return to office. But the performance across different indexes tells a nuanced story about where investors placed their bets.

Here's how the major market-tracking ETFs performed from the close on Jan. 17, 2025, to the close on Jan. 16, 2026 (markets were closed on inauguration day itself):

• SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): Started at $597.58, ended at $691.66, up 15.7%
• Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ): Started at $521.74, ended at $621.06, up 19.0%
• SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA): Started at $434.72, ended at $493.42, up 13.5%

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 took the crown with a 19% gain, which makes sense when you consider that all seven of the Magnificent 7 stocks posted positive returns in 2025. Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) led the charge with an impressive 65.2% gain.

The S&P 500 (SPY) came in second with a respectable 15.7% return, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) trailed at 13.5%. Interestingly, 23 of the Dow's 30 components finished the year in positive territory, more than the 18 and 19 winners in 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Bitcoin's Underwhelming Performance

Here's where things get interesting. Trump positioned himself as the cryptocurrency president during his campaign, and crypto prices surged after he won the 2024 election. He talked about establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and pushing through pro-crypto legislation.

So how did Bitcoin actually perform? Based on the opening price on Jan. 20, 2025, and the price at 9:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 20, 2026:

BTC: Started at $101,083.75, now at $90,888.04, down 10.1%

That's right—Bitcoin is down 10% since Trump took office, underperforming every major stock index. This might surprise investors who bought into the crypto-friendly narrative and legislative promises.

What History Suggests About Year Two

During Trump's first presidential term, the S&P 500 (SPY) gained roughly 70% over four years. Here's how those returns broke down annually:

• 2017: +21.7%
• 2018: -4.6%
• 2019: +31.2%
• 2020: +18.4%

The 16.6% gain for SPY in 2025 marked the second-lowest return during any year Trump held office for the majority of the period.

There's a pattern worth noting: both Trump's first term and President Joe Biden's presidency saw their worst annual returns in year two. In 2018, markets dropped 4.6% amid tariff uncertainty and tech valuation concerns. In 2022, Biden's second year, markets crashed 18.2% due to lingering COVID-19 impacts, soaring inflation, and rising interest rates.

Trump frequently pointed to stock market returns and record valuations as proof of economic health during 2025. Voters, however, disagreed—they were more focused on inflation, rising grocery costs, and healthcare expenses.

Looking Ahead to 2026

After a strong 2025 for equities, investors and analysts are watching carefully for what comes next. That second-year downtrend pattern from both recent presidencies offers reason for caution.

Uncertainty over tariffs, interest rate policy, and geopolitical tensions could prompt the stock market to take a breather in 2026. For cryptocurrency enthusiasts, though, that volatility might actually be good news. Bitcoin and other digital assets often rally during periods of political uncertainty and geopolitical tension.

While Bitcoin is down 10% during Trump's first year back in office, the cryptocurrency did set multiple all-time highs since his re-election and during portions of his second term. Whether the promised Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and pro-crypto legislation materialize remains to be seen, but for now, traditional equity indexes are winning the performance race.