A Risky Gambit

Prime Minister Mark Carney might want to reconsider his latest strategic move. Michael Pillsbury, a senior fellow for China Strategy at the Heritage Foundation, isn't mincing words about Canada's decision to cozy up to China while relations with the U.S. remain icy at best.

Speaking on Fox Business' The Claman Countdown Monday, Pillsbury told host Liz Claman that Carney is "playing with fire" by pursuing a trade deal with Beijing while effectively sidelining President Donald Trump. The message was clear: this could end badly for Canada.

Here's the thing about Trump's public reaction to the Canada-China deal—it's more complicated than it appears. When Trump said he was okay with the arrangement and called it a "good thing," Pillsbury argues there's a "double meaning" at play. Trump knows full well that China has a spotty track record when it comes to actually implementing trade commitments. So is he really endorsing the deal, or just letting Canada learn a hard lesson?

The Math Doesn't Add Up

Pillsbury pointed out what should be obvious: roughly 75% of Canadian exports flow south to the United States. That's not exactly the economic profile of a country that can afford to "taunt" its largest trading partner. And Beijing? China loves watching America squabble with its allies. It's a distraction that serves Chinese interests perfectly.

The strategist's advice to Carney was blunt: rethink this deal unless you want to be "punished severely" by Trump down the line. It's worth noting that Pillsbury has been studying Trump's approach to tariffs and trade for decades. Since 1987, he argues, Trump has viewed tariffs as a "political source of leverage" rather than purely economic tools. "At the end of another year or two, we're going to see some real accomplishments by Trump," Pillsbury predicted.

When Allies Become Adversaries

The irony here is thick. Trump endorsed the Canada-China deal on Friday, saying Carney should be making such agreements. Yet behind the diplomatic niceties, U.S.-Canada trade relations have deteriorated significantly during Trump's second term. Tariff threats on steel, aluminum, and other key imports have become routine. Negotiations keep veering toward confrontation rather than cooperation.

Despite months of talks and meetings, Trump and Carney haven't managed to hammer out a trade deal. The situation has gotten tense enough that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has floated the possibility of Trump exiting the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) come 2026. That would represent a dramatic rupture in North American trade architecture.

Economist Justin Wolfers offered a different perspective, criticizing Trump's fundamental understanding of international trade. Trade isn't about competition, Wolfers argues—it's about cooperation. He suggested that America's combative stance toward allies, including those persistent tariff threats, may have actually pushed Canada toward deepening ties with China in the first place.

So who's playing with fire here? That depends on whether you think leveraging China against the U.S. is strategic genius or a dangerous miscalculation when three-quarters of your exports depend on American buyers.