When tech billionaires and budget airline CEOs start hurling insults at each other on social media, you know things have gotten interesting. The public war of words between Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY) CEO Michael O'Leary has now reached the point where people are actually betting on whether Musk might just buy the whole airline out of spite.

Prediction Markets Weigh In On An Unlikely Takeover

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, launched a tongue-in-cheek market on Friday asking whether Musk will buy Ryanair. The answer from traders? Probably not. The contract showed just a 9% probability at the time of writing, with odds declining sharply and trading volume remaining low.

The market's verdict is clear: despite the high-profile nature of the Starlink feud, traders view a Musk-led takeover of the Irish carrier as highly unlikely. The declining trend suggests this is more entertainment than serious speculation.

How A Starlink Dispute Turned Personal

The whole thing started when O'Leary dismissed Starlink's value for Ryanair's no-frills, short-haul business model. In an interview with Reuters, he argued that passengers on one-hour flights simply won't pay for Wi-Fi. He also said installing Starlink would cost Ryanair between $200 million and $250 million annually — a hefty price tag for a service he doesn't think customers want.

Musk pushed back on X, arguing that Ryanair would "lose customers to airlines that do have internet." He also challenged O'Leary's technical claims about fuel costs.

That's when things got spicy. O'Leary escalated the rhetoric during an Irish radio interview, telling listeners to pay "no attention" to Musk before calling him "an idiot." Musk responded by labeling O'Leary an "utter idiot" and adding a pithy two-word recommendation: "Fire him."

The Technical Battle Over Fuel Efficiency

Beyond the name-calling, there's an actual technical dispute here. O'Leary claimed that Starlink antennas impose a 2% fuel penalty due to weight and drag — a significant cost for an airline that obsesses over efficiency. SpaceX executives weren't having it.

Michael Nicolls, SpaceX's vice president of Starlink engineering, said on X that internal analysis showed Starlink increased fuel burn by about 0.3% on a Boeing 737-800 — nearly seven times less than O'Leary's estimate. Musk replied, "Hmm, must be a way to get that down under 0.1%."

The gap between 0.3% and 2% is enormous when you're talking about fuel costs across a fleet. Someone's math is off, or someone's measuring different things.

Europe's Airlines Are Picking Sides

While Musk and O'Leary trade barbs, other European carriers are voting with their wallets. Deutsche Lufthansa (DLAKY) announced plans this week to roll out Starlink service, and Scandinavian Airlines operated its first Starlink-equipped flight just a day later.

SpaceX's satellite internet service promises high-speed connectivity on aircraft, something that's increasingly becoming an expectation for travelers — even if Ryanair doesn't think its passengers care. The question is whether O'Leary is right that budget travelers won't pay for it, or whether Musk is right that they'll simply choose airlines that offer it included.

Ryanair (RYAAY) maintains a stronger price trend over the short, medium and long terms with a high Momentum ranking, suggesting that whatever O'Leary's doing, investors seem to like it.

As for the takeover bet? At 9% odds, the market is treating this more like reality TV than reality. But with Musk, you never quite know.