Here's a fun fact: Bitcoin (BTC) fell 6% in 2025 while gold surged 65%, yet Cathie Wood from ARK Invest is betting on Bitcoin for 2026. Why? Because gold just reached valuations only witnessed once in 125 years, and the last time that happened was during the Great Depression.

Why Gold's Rally Might Be Running Out of Steam

Gold, tracked by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), exploded 166% from $1,600 to $4,300 since October 2022. The rally was fueled by global wealth creation outpacing gold's supply growth.

But Wood points out something fascinating: gold's price relative to the money supply has only been this expensive once in the past 125 years, back during the Great Depression. That ratio just surpassed its previous peak from 1980 when inflation and interest rates were both in double digits. Translation? Gold is more expensive now than during the worst inflation crisis in modern history.

Here's where it gets interesting. After gold hit extreme valuations in 1934 and 1980, stocks absolutely crushed it for the next two decades. Equities returned 670% over 35 years following the 1934 peak and 1,015% over 21 years after the 1980 peak.

Wood's message is straightforward: gold looks expensive at current levels while equities appear positioned for a major run.

The Bitcoin Argument for 2026

Bitcoin gained 360% since October 2022 while its supply only grew around 1.3% annually. Unlike gold, you can't mine more Bitcoin when prices surge, no matter how much you want to.

Gold miners respond to high prices by digging up more gold. Bitcoin's supply is locked by code. It will grow just 0.82% per year for the next two years, then drop to 0.41% annually. That scarcity advantage matters when demand increases.

Wood argues that Bitcoin doesn't move with stocks, bonds, or gold, making it a genuine diversification tool. When one asset crashes, Bitcoin often moves independently, giving portfolios protection other assets can't provide.

In fact, Bitcoin moves less in sync with gold than the S&P 500 moves with bonds, meaning it's a better hedge for portfolios.

"Bitcoin should be a good source of diversification for asset allocators looking for higher returns per unit of risk during the years ahead," Wood wrote.

Where Gold Stands Technically

Gold is down 0.70% after touching fresh all-time highs above $4,660 earlier this week.

The 20 EMA at $4,470 has acted as dynamic support throughout this rally, with the Supertrend at $4,366 providing a safety net below.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: $4,470 at the 20 EMA, then $4,366 at the Supertrend. Breaking below $4,300 threatens the entire rally.
• Resistance: $4,660 previous high, then $4,700-$4,800. Breaking $4,800 opens the psychological $5,000 level.

Bitcoin's Technical Setup

Bitcoin is down 0.88%, stuck in a frustrating $88,000-$97,000 range for two weeks inside a symmetrical triangle pattern.

Price sits below the 100 EMA at $95,963 and 200 EMA at $99,502, unable to reclaim higher ground despite multiple attempts.

The triangle must resolve soon. Each rally to $97,000 gets rejected, each dip to $92,000 gets bought. Something's got to give.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: $92,050 at the 20/50 EMA cluster, then $91,024 at the SAR. Breaking $88,000 risks a cascade to $84,000-$85,000.
• Resistance: $95,963 at the 100 EMA, then $99,502 at the 200 EMA. Clearing $100,000 opens $103,000-$105,000.