M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is set to release fourth-quarter earnings before the market opens on Friday, January 16. And if you're watching the analyst community, things are getting interesting.
Wall Street expects the Buffalo, New York-based bank to report earnings of $4.47 per share for the quarter, which would represent a solid jump from the $3.77 per share it posted in the same period last year. On the revenue side, the consensus estimate sits at $2.47 billion, compared to $2.38 billion a year ago.
M&T Bank has recent momentum on its side. Back in October, the company delivered better-than-expected third-quarter results, and shares climbed 1.3% on Thursday to close at $212.57.
But here's where it gets interesting: some of Wall Street's most accurate analysts have been tinkering with their ratings lately, and the trend isn't exactly bullish.
What the Top Analysts Are Saying
Let's look at what the analysts with the best track records have been doing with M&T Bank recently:
Steven Chubak from Wolfe Research, who sports a 71% accuracy rate, downgraded the stock from Outperform to Peer Perform on January 7. Translation: he thinks it'll perform about in line with similar banks rather than outpacing them.
That same day, Ebrahim Poonawala at B of A Securities (70% accuracy rate) moved from Buy to Neutral, though he did set a $225 price target. It's the classic "we like it, but maybe not at these prices" move.
Just a day earlier, on January 6, John Pancari at Evercore ISI Group (67% accuracy) also downgraded from Outperform to In-Line while actually raising his price target from $210 to $225. The mixed signal suggests the stock has performed well, but upside may be limited from here.
Not everyone's bearish though. Jason Goldberg at Barclays (62% accuracy) maintained his Equal-Weight rating on January 5 and bumped his price target from $220 to $236. And David Konrad at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, who has the highest accuracy rate of this bunch at 78%, kept his Market Perform rating while lifting his target from $220 to $230 on December 17.
The pattern here? Analysts are raising their price targets but tempering their enthusiasm with neutral-to-cautious ratings. That's often what happens when a stock has had a good run and the easy money may already be made.
