If you're wondering whether the AI boom is running out of steam, Gene Munster has some news for you: it's not. The managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management says the latest signals from Nvidia Corp (NVDA) and its primary chip supplier suggest AI growth is actually accelerating heading into 2026, not cooling off like some skeptics predicted.

The Numbers Don't Match the Narrative

Munster took to X on Thursday to share his take, arguing that key indicators point to AI fundamentals that are stronger than Wall Street expects. His forecast? Nvidia revenue could jump more than 65% year over year in 2026, comfortably ahead of the Street's roughly 50% consensus estimate.

"Bottom line: AI infrastructure growth in 2026 is likely to exceed expectations," Munster wrote, noting that current signals are "2-for-2" in favor of continued momentum. That's the kind of call that gets attention when chip stocks are already priced for perfection.

Nvidia's Management Sounds Confident

Part of Munster's optimism comes from Nvidia's own commentary at CES, where executives seemed bullish that demand for AI infrastructure could surpass what analysts are modeling. The tone from leadership suggested there's upside to current growth forecasts, with enterprise and data center AI spending holding up better than expected.

TSMC's Results Confirm the Story

The real confirmation signal came from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), which manufactures chips for Nvidia. TSMC's first-quarter 2026 revenue guidance landed between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, comfortably above Wall Street's $33.2 billion estimate. That kind of beat matters when you're trying to gauge real demand versus hype.

TSMC shares climbed 4.44% during Thursday's regular session and added another 0.47% after hours. Nvidia gained 2.10% during regular trading and ticked up 0.39% after hours.

"Nvidia is up on the read-through," Munster noted, adding that the guidance implies TSMC revenue could grow roughly 40% year over year in the March 2026 quarter. That's the kind of number that suggests AI chip demand isn't just holding steady—it's expanding.

TSMC Crushes Fourth-Quarter Expectations

TSMC's fourth-quarter results backed up the optimistic outlook. The company delivered beats across margins, earnings, and guidance. Gross margin reached 62.3%, topping the 60.6% consensus, while earnings per share hit $3.09, well ahead of the $2.90 forecast. Revenue came in at a record $33.1 billion, slightly above the $33 billion Street estimate.

More importantly for the AI narrative, CEO CC Wei declared that "AI is real," pointing to the company's High-Performance Computing segment now accounting for 55% of total revenue. That's not a rounding error—it's a structural shift in the business.

The strong quarterly report and impressive margins have quieted some of the AI bubble concerns that were circulating earlier. When a company like TSMC posts numbers like these, it's hard to argue that AI spending is all smoke and mirrors.