President Donald Trump is warming up to the idea of regime change in Iran, sort of. In comments to Reuters on Wednesday, Trump signaled he'd accept Iran's exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi as leader if that's what Iranians want, though he remains skeptical about how the whole thing would actually work.
Trump said Pahlavi "seems very nice" but questioned whether he'd be effective inside Iran, noting the situation hasn't reached that point yet. He also wondered aloud whether Iranians would even accept Pahlavi's leadership, though he added that if they did, it "would be fine" with him. It's a notable shift from Trump's earlier dismissiveness about Pahlavi's potential role in any regime change scenario.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.S.C) has also gotten in on the action, meeting with Pahlavi and expressing solidarity with the Iranian people. Pahlavi himself is making promises on X about what a free Iran would look like: dismantling the nuclear weapons program, cutting off support for terrorist groups, and cooperating internationally to fight terrorism, organized crime, drug trafficking, and extremist Islamism.
Oil Jumps as Iran Protests Intensify
While diplomats play chess, markets are reacting to what's happening on the ground. Protests sparked by inflation and a collapsing rial have exploded into Iran's biggest anti-government uprising since the 1979 revolution, and investors are getting nervous.
Oil markets are particularly jittery. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed for six consecutive sessions, hitting $62 a barrel on Wednesday as traders priced in the risk of supply disruptions and possible U.S. military action. As of the latest check, oil has pulled back 2.84% to $60.25 per barrel, but the volatility tells you everything about how uncertain this situation is.
U.S. Pulls Back as Strike Risks Mount
Trump has warned Iran of serious consequences over protester deaths, even as he downplays Pahlavi's immediate prospects. Meanwhile, the U.S. is quietly withdrawing some personnel from Middle East bases as a precaution, following Iranian warnings of potential strikes if Washington attacks.
Prediction markets are lighting up with escalating risk assessments. Polymarket is pricing in an 81% chance of a U.S. strike on Iran by the end of the month. Even more striking, there's a 56% probability that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be out of power by June 30, raising serious questions about whether the Islamic Republic as we know it can survive this moment.
