Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) shares dipped Wednesday ahead of what could be a historic earnings report Thursday morning. The investment banking giant is going for its 10th straight quarter beating both revenue and earnings expectations, a streak that has helped propel the stock to a 62% gain over the past year.
But there's more riding on these results than just Goldman's own performance. As the largest holding in the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) at 11.74% of assets, Goldman has the power to move the entire index. That's nearly 50% more weight than the second-place holding, Caterpillar, which sits at just 7.96%.
What Wall Street Expects
Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $11.67, which would actually represent a slight decline from the $11.95 posted a year ago. Revenue, however, is expected to climb to $14.12 billion from $13.87 billion in the prior year period.
The company has been remarkably consistent lately, beating EPS estimates in nine consecutive quarters and exceeding revenue expectations for 10 straight quarters. That kind of reliability is part of what's driven the stock to trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1x, which analysts consider fair valuation territory.
The consensus rating sits at Hold with an average price target of $765.47, though recent analyst moves have been decidedly bullish. JPMorgan holds a Neutral rating but raised its target to $775. Barclays maintains an Overweight rating with a $1,048 target. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods rates the stock Market Perform with a $971 target.
The Volatility Challenge
BofA Securities analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala recently raised his price forecast to $1,050 from $900 while keeping a Buy rating. His analysis puts a spotlight on what he sees as CEO David Solomon's biggest headache: managing earnings volatility.
The numbers tell the story. Goldman's EPS plunged 56% between 2021 and 2023, a swing that makes investors nervous. The culprit? Capital markets business accounts for roughly 70% of total revenue, and that segment is inherently cyclical and unpredictable.
Still, Poonawala sees reasons for optimism. He's forecasting a 20% year-over-year rebound in investment banking revenue for fiscal 2026, along with mid-single-digit growth in trading and financing. Regulatory and cyclical tailwinds should support EPS growth, even if the path isn't perfectly smooth.
Why This Matters for the Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average uses a price-weighted methodology, which means higher-priced stocks have more influence on the index's movements. At its current price level, Goldman isn't just a member of the Dow—it's the dominant force.
That 11.74% weighting in DIA means Goldman's earnings report Thursday could send ripples through the entire index. The stock has already proven itself a top performer, posting a 55.8% gain in 2025 to claim second place among all 30 Dow components. Only Caterpillar's 59.5% surge topped it.
A strong earnings beat could lift not just Goldman but the broader Dow and all the ETFs tracking it. A disappointment could do the opposite.
Technical Picture Shows Strength
The technical indicators suggest Goldman is riding a strong trend. The stock trades 1.8% above its 20-day simple moving average and 14% above its 100-day SMA, pointing to solid longer-term momentum.
The Relative Strength Index sits at 62.85, considered neutral territory—meaning the stock isn't showing signs of being overbought or oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is above its signal line, suggesting bullish momentum. It's a mixed picture that leaves room for movement in either direction.
Key resistance stands at $961.50, while support comes in at $877.00. The stock recently touched its 52-week high of $961.69, trading much closer to that ceiling than to its 52-week low of $439.38.
Strong Momentum Scores
Goldman scores impressively on momentum and quality metrics. The momentum score of 88.55 out of 100 is rated Bullish, indicating the stock is significantly outperforming the broader market. The quality score of 80 out of 100 is labeled Solid, reflecting a healthy balance sheet.
That combination suggests a company firing on multiple cylinders—not just riding market enthusiasm but backed by fundamental strength.
Other ETFs Watching Closely
Beyond the Dow tracking funds, several other ETFs hold substantial Goldman positions and will be watching Thursday's report carefully:
These hefty weightings mean any significant buying or selling in these funds automatically triggers moves in Goldman shares. It's a mechanical relationship that can amplify volatility around major events like earnings reports.
Pre-Earnings Weakness
Goldman shares traded down 1.24% at $933.50 on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the Thursday morning announcement. That pullback is fairly typical pre-earnings behavior, especially for a stock that's already up more than 60% over the past year.
The question now is whether Goldman can extend its remarkable double-beat streak to 10 quarters and justify its position as the Dow's heavyweight champion. Investors across the market will be paying attention—whether they own Goldman directly or not.
