Thursday brings what could be the crypto industry's most consequential legislative moment in years, and the odds aren't looking great. Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorne puts the chances of meaningful bipartisan support at just 25%, meaning there's a three-in-four probability this whole thing either limps forward or collapses entirely.

Three Scenarios, Three Wildly Different Futures

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) shareholders should pay attention to Thursday's markup hearing. It could determine whether crypto gets federal regulatory clarity this year or stays in limbo until 2027 or beyond.

Thorne breaks down the possibilities into three scenarios with dramatically different probability weights.

Scenario 1: The Bipartisan Dream (25% probability) All Republicans plus two to four Democrats vote yes, sending the bill to the Senate floor with real momentum. Think back to the stablecoin bill's path last July, which grabbed 68 votes—enough to override a presidential veto. That's the template here.

Scenario 2: The Partisan Slog (50% probability) Republicans muscle it through committee on party lines, but it dies on the Senate floor without Democrat buy-in. More negotiations might happen, but you're looking at a timeline that stretches way out.

Scenario 3: The Committee Death (25% probability) The bill doesn't even make it out of committee. Thorne warns this scenario pushes any serious legislation past the 2026 midterms, landing you somewhere in 2027 or later.

How a Simple Bill Became a Political Christmas Tree

Here's the thing: the original question of whether crypto assets are securities or commodities is mostly settled at this point. Everyone basically knows where the lines are.

But now, according to Thorne, the bill has turned into a "Christmas tree" with lawmakers hanging all sorts of new ornaments on it.

The current sticking points include:

• DeFi regulation: Should developers have to register with the SEC and run full KYC/AML compliance programs?
• Stablecoin yield: Can issuers share the interest they earn on reserves with token holders?
• Government ethics: Restrictions targeting presidential family crypto profits
• Prediction markets: Potentially banning sports betting outcomes
• Tokenized securities: Rules for DeFi trading platforms

The DeFi question is what Thorne calls the industry's "red line." Forcing non-custodial wallet developers to comply with Bank Secrecy Act requirements would be, in his words, "fundamentally unworkable." Imagine trying to enforce traditional banking compliance on software developers who don't actually hold anyone's money.

Why No Bill Might Beat a Bad Bill

Thorne makes an interesting argument: failure might not be the worst outcome here. No bill could actually be better than bad legislation.

The crypto industry is already notching wins through administrative relief under new SEC and CFTC leadership. Regulatory guidance alone might sustain the sector through 2026 and 2027 without formal legislation.

The real danger? Locking restrictive rules into federal law that would survive future hostile administrations. Good luck changing statutes later when the political winds shift.

Meanwhile, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been lobbying aggressively for the bill. The exchange now serves over 100 million users and has positioned itself as the "everything exchange" competing directly with traditional brokerages.

Robinhood is coming at this from the opposite angle—it started as a stock brokerage and has been adding crypto, prediction markets, and 24/7 trading capabilities. Both companies desperately need regulatory clarity to accelerate institutional adoption, but the wrong kind of clarity could actually kill their crypto operations.

The Week Ahead

The bill text and proposed amendments go public Tuesday night. Senators have until 5 p.m. Tuesday to deliver their amendment proposals with physical signatures and 50 printed copies to the Banking Committee chair. Yes, physical copies in 2025.

Thursday's hearing will reveal which amendments actually get votes and whether any Democrats cross party lines.

Those 25% odds of clean passage reflect what happens when straightforward market structure legislation gets loaded up with sports betting bans, presidential ethics rules, and Wall Street DeFi lobbying. What started simple became a political minefield.

Thorne's team plans to publish updated analysis after the committee draft drops Monday night, so expect more clarity on what's actually in this thing within 48 hours.