Cantor Fitzgerald is doubling down on Rocket Lab Corp. (RKLB), and for good reason. After a record-breaking 2025 and a contract win that literally doubled its backlog, the space company is heading into 2026 with serious momentum. Analysts reiterated their Overweight rating, calling Rocket Lab the premier alternative to SpaceX in an industry that desperately needs more competition.

A Record Year Sets the Foundation

Rocket Lab isn't just talking about growth anymore, it's delivering on it. The company hit its ambitious 2025 target of 21 Electron launches, bringing its total successful mission count to 79. That makes it the second most active launcher in the United States and the busiest publicly traded space company on the planet.

The financials back up the operational success. Third quarter revenue came in at roughly $155 million, a record for the company and a beat on expectations. More importantly, the contracted backlog surged to $1.1 billion, with management projecting that about 57% of that will convert to revenue within the next year. That's real visibility in an industry where visibility matters.

An $805 Million Validation

The biggest catalyst came from the U.S. Space Development Agency, which awarded Rocket Lab an $805 million firm fixed-price contract for Tranche 3. It's the largest deal in the company's history and effectively doubled the total backlog overnight.

Under the agreement, Rocket Lab will design and manufacture 18 missile warning, tracking and defense space vehicles for low Earth orbit. This follows the earlier Tranche 2 award worth $515 million, which has already moved into full-scale production. Cantor analysts view these massive government contracts as proof that Rocket Lab has evolved from a niche small-satellite launcher into a legitimate prime contractor capable of handling complex defense work.

Neutron Changes Everything

While the Electron rocket has been a reliable workhorse, 2026 is really about Neutron. This medium-lift reusable vehicle represents Rocket Lab's play for the bigger market currently dominated by SpaceX's Falcon 9.

Cantor highlighted the first Neutron flight, targeted for the first half of 2026, as the single most material catalyst for the stock. Management expects the rocket to arrive at the launchpad in Q1, with the maiden flight following shortly after. If successful, Neutron is expected to dramatically improve the company's unit economics and position Rocket Lab as the only viable commercial competitor to Falcon 9.

Risks Remain, But Conviction is High

Cantor acknowledged the downside risks: Neutron could face delays, regulatory hurdles might slow progress, and supply chain disruptions are always a possibility in aerospace. But the firm expressed strong confidence in Rocket Lab's "launch heritage" and its ongoing transformation into a space infrastructure powerhouse.

Price Action: Rocket Lab (RKLB) shares were down slightly on Wednesday, trading at $86.37.