If you're looking for diplomatic optimism about Iran right now, former national security adviser John Bolton is not your guy. He's made it pretty clear that he thinks negotiations with Tehran are pointless, and he's pushing for a far more aggressive approach.

No Time For Talking

Bolton shared his views in a video posted on X Tuesday, shortly after the State Department advised Americans in Iran to get out as protests intensified and security forces cracked down harder.

"Negotiations with the Iranian regime are a waste of oxygen," Bolton said bluntly.

His alternative? Use intimidation and support opposition forces to fracture the regime from within. "Let's give them reason to be intimidated. Let's see if we can help the opposition pick the regime apart at the top," he said.

Bolton warned the situation inside Iran is "very dangerous," with reports suggesting deaths from government repression "could be in the thousands" as demonstrations stretch into their second week.

What Would Regime Change Actually Look Like?

When asked about potential U.S. airstrikes, Bolton didn't reject the idea outright, but he emphasized that military action needs a clear endgame. "What's the plan? What's the objective?" he asked, arguing the goal should be "to help the opposition overthrow the regime of the Ayatollahs and the Revolutionary Guard."

Limited strikes designed just to send a message wouldn't cut it, according to Bolton. Instead, he suggested focusing on Iran's power centers: Revolutionary Guard headquarters, internal security forces, nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and naval assets in the Persian Gulf.

He dismissed reports that Iran had privately reached out for negotiations, saying Tehran would just use talks "to buy time and to try and ward off a real US move here."

Trump Turns Up The Economic Pressure

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs Monday on any country doing business with Iran, ratcheting up economic pressure as the protests turn deadly.

The numbers are grim. Rights group HRANA reported 490 civilian deaths, 48 security personnel killed, and over 10,800 arrests. State TV has been showing funerals and body bags.

Trump has floated military action and warned the U.S. would respond if Iranian forces fired on protesters. He also mentioned that Iran had expressed interest in negotiating over its nuclear program, though he added that action might be necessary before any meeting happens. Tehran, for its part, has signaled it's ready for war while simultaneously calling for dialogue.

Energy Markets Feel The Heat

All this tension is showing up in energy markets. Over the weekend, crude and natural gas prices jumped as investors digested the escalating situation.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the strategic wild card here. About one-third of global seaborne oil passes through this narrow waterway, and analysts are warning that any disruption could send Brent crude to $110 per barrel. That's the kind of scenario that creates headaches for energy security worldwide.