GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) reports its fourth-quarter results on January 28, and if BofA Securities analyst Andrew Obin is right, the power equipment giant is about to blow past expectations in a big way.
Obin, who maintains a Buy rating with an $804 price target, projects adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion for the quarter. That's "well ahead of consensus" estimates sitting at $1.3 billion, suggesting the company's momentum is stronger than most investors realize.
The really interesting number is the order book. GE Vernova is expected to report $17.6 billion in new orders for Q4, representing 33% year-over-year growth. The breakdown tells the story: $10.0 billion in Power, $5.6 billion in Electrification, and $2.2 billion in Wind.
Gas turbine orders are particularly impressive. The company likely booked around 11 gigawatts worth of orders in Q4, with the remainder coming through slot reservation agreements. Compare that to 7.4 GW in Q3, 5.1 GW in Q2, and 7.1 GW in Q1, and you can see the acceleration happening in real time.
What's driving this surge? Data centers are getting desperate. CEO Scott Strazik points out that these operations are turning to on-site power generation because they "can't deal with uncertainty" around grid connection timelines. When you're trying to build massive computing facilities and the local utility can't tell you when you'll actually get power, you start looking for alternatives.
Meanwhile, regulated utilities keep adding new power generation plans for regulatory approval, creating additional tailwinds for GE Vernova's business.
Shares traded up 1.75% at $650.98 on Tuesday.
