Cava Group Inc. (CAVA) is getting a fresh look from Wall Street, and at least one analyst thinks the Mediterranean restaurant chain's rough patch is mostly behind it. After watching the stock slide roughly 40% over the past year, investors might finally have reason to look up.
Sarang Vora at Telsey Advisory Group just initiated coverage on Cava with an Outperform rating and an $85 price target. His thesis is pretty straightforward: this is an early-stage unit growth story with genuine differentiation in an industry where standing out actually matters.
What Makes Cava Different
According to Vora, Cava has carved out something special with its authentic Mediterranean menu, disciplined execution, and solid unit economics. The company isn't just opening restaurants for the sake of expansion. It's building toward a specific goal of 1,000+ locations by 2032, which would represent more than doubling its current base of about 435 restaurants.
The analyst expects average unit volumes to climb thanks to menu innovation, remodels under something called Project Soul, and tech upgrades like the Connected Kitchen initiative. Beyond the operational mechanics, Vora pointed to Cava's company culture as a genuine competitive advantage. The focus on food quality, talent development, customer service, and hospitality could be what drives long-term outperformance.
The Recent Slowdown Is Already Priced In
Vora isn't ignoring the fact that business slowed in 2025. Tough year-over-year comparisons from strong product launches in prior periods weighed on results. But here's the thing: he believes those pressures are already more than reflected in the stock's steep decline.
Looking ahead, the analyst expects Cava shares to outperform in 2026 and beyond as investors shift their attention back to the long-term growth story and restaurant-level performance. He also sees modest tailwinds forming from higher tax refunds, stable or lower gas prices, and declining interest rates.
His $85 price target is based on applying roughly a 54x EV/EBITDA multiple to his 2026 EBITDA estimate of $181 million. Vora forecasts same-store sales improving to the 4-5% range in the second half of 2026 and into 2027, a meaningful rebound from the declines seen in late 2025. Restaurant-level margins should also recover in the back half of 2026 and expand further in 2027.
CAVA Price Action: Cava Group shares were up 2.28% at $71.19 at the time of publication on Friday.
