A Warning Without a Plan

President Donald Trump is talking tough on Iran but keeping his cards close when it comes to what happens next. During an appearance on The Hugh Hewitt Show Thursday, Trump addressed recent protester deaths in Iran, which he attributed to crowd control issues, and delivered a blunt warning about future incidents.

"That if they do that, they're going to have to pay hell," Trump said, though he stopped short of detailing what those consequences might actually look like.

When the conversation turned to exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who leads the monarchist wing of Iran's opposition movement, Trump's response was notably lukewarm. He called Pahlavi a "nice person" but expressed uncertainty about meeting with him, saying it may not be "appropriate" right now. His stance on regime change? Let things play out naturally and see who emerges on top.

That's a significant signal. Pahlavi has backing from Israel and represents one faction of Iran's fractured opposition, but Trump's comments suggest Washington isn't ready to throw its weight behind any particular successor if Iran's current government collapses.

Protests, Internet Shutdowns, and Prediction Markets

The Iranian government recently shut down the internet nationwide in response to ongoing protests, drawing sharp criticism from Pahlavi and international observers. Pahlavi publicly thanked Trump for his commitment to holding the regime accountable and urged European leaders to follow suit.

Meanwhile, speculation about Iran's future has moved to prediction markets. Betting on whether Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will lose power has exploded on Polymarket, with the "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?" bet hitting $4.7 million in trading volume as anti-regime protests stretch into their 12th day. That makes it one of the platform's most active markets.

Trump's latest remarks come after Iran warned against U.S. intervention in the protests. Previously, Trump had stated the U.S. would support Iranian protesters if the government turned to violence, setting up a tense dynamic.

Energy Markets Watch Nervously

Price Action: Oil prices have dropped nearly 20% in 2025 due to oversupply and weak demand, but geopolitical wildcards remain. Iran's escalating unrest, along with developments in Venezuela, continue to pose risks that could shake global energy markets. WTI Crude was recently trading 1.09% higher at $58.39 per barrel.