If you've ever wondered what happens when ambitious promises meet stubborn reality, look no further than Tesla Inc. (TSLA). Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki, is done being polite about CEO Elon Musk's grand visions for the company's future, particularly as Tesla's end-of-year deadline for driverless robotaxis comes and goes.

The Conference Call Reality Check

Taking to X, Gerber didn't mince words about what he sees as a pattern of overpromising. "The CEO makes claims (hallucinations) on conference calls that don't even come remotely true," he wrote. It's a pointed critique from someone who's been both a supporter and critic of the electric vehicle maker.

The investor laid out a blunt assessment of where things actually stand. Tesla's Full Self-Driving system, despite offering Level 2 autonomy, still has significant problems. The much-hyped robotaxis? They're basically just Ubers. The humanoid robot? Far from working. And car sales are declining to boot.

Here's where it gets interesting from a valuation perspective. Gerber pointed out that Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio sits around 300. For context, that's the kind of multiple you'd expect from a company posting explosive growth, not one dealing with falling sales and delayed product launches. "Something has got to give," Gerber said, echoing what value-focused investors have been muttering for a while now.

It's worth noting that Gerber's relationship with Tesla has been complicated. He previously praised the FSD system for improvements over earlier versions, so this isn't just reflexive criticism. He's watching the technology closely and calling it like he sees it.

Where Tesla's Autonomy Actually Stands

Tesla continues pushing forward on autonomous driving technology. Musk recently shared that he took a ride in a Tesla Robotaxi around Austin, operating autonomously. The company's Cybercab has been spotted testing in both Austin and California, with Musk indicating production will scale up sometime this year.

But here's the thing about autonomous driving: it's really, really hard. Musk himself acknowledged this when discussing Nvidia Corp's (NVDA) self-driving technology called Alpamayo. The distribution side of autonomous driving, he noted, represents the biggest challenge for scaling autonomy. In other words, getting the technology to work consistently across different environments and conditions is where things get complicated.

The Competition Isn't Waiting Around

Gary Black of Future Fund LLC recently made a point that should worry Tesla investors banking on an autonomy monopoly: Tesla won't be the only company to crack this problem. Nvidia's (NVDA) Alpamayo technology reveal saw CEO Jensen Huang describe it as a ChatGPT moment for physical AI. That's the kind of statement that gets attention in Silicon Valley.

The competitive landscape is getting crowded fast. Black suggested that ride-hailing companies like Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) could help democratize autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOGL) (GOOG) Waymo service just unveiled its new minivan-style autonomous vehicle developed with Chinese automaker Zeekr. The van, called "Ojai," features Waymo's sixth-generation autonomous hardware.

This matters because Tesla's valuation assumes it will dominate autonomous driving. If multiple players deliver working solutions around the same time, that changes the economic picture considerably.

Tesla scores well on momentum metrics and offers satisfactory quality characteristics, but presents poor value at current prices. The stock shows favorable price trends over medium and long-term periods.

Price Action: TSLA traded at $435.80, gaining 1.02% at Thursday's market close. The stock slipped 0.14% to $435.21 in after-hours trading, according to market data.