The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro hasn't given President Donald Trump the boost you might expect from a major foreign policy development. Instead, his approval numbers are moving in the wrong direction, according to fresh polling data.

The Numbers Tell a Complicated Story

A new Morning Consult poll shows Trump's approval rating at 46%, down one point from two weeks earlier. His disapproval rating holds steady at 51%, putting him at a net approval of -5%. Not great, but also fairly consistent with where he's been since taking office in January 2025, when he's averaged 47% approval and 51% disapproval.

Here's the interesting part: most of this survey was conducted before news of the Venezuela strikes hit social media and Trump confirmed Maduro's capture. So we're getting a reading on voter sentiment right as this major foreign policy move was unfolding.

The real story might be in the foreign policy numbers specifically. Trump's approval rating for handling foreign policy sits at 45%, with 44% disapproving. That sounds close, but it represents a net approval of just one percentage point, down from +3% before the Maduro operation. That's a meaningful shift, suggesting voters are either questioning the Venezuela action itself or getting nervous about what comes next.

Healthcare Still Weighs Heavy

While foreign policy drama unfolds, voters remain fixated on something closer to home: healthcare costs. The poll reveals that only 40% of respondents think the Trump administration is making reducing healthcare costs a "top priority." That's hovering near the all-time low of 39% for this question, which probably explains why voters aren't giving the administration much credit on domestic issues either.

Whether voters blame Trump, Congress, or both for not tackling healthcare more aggressively before 2026 kicked off, it's clearly a sore spot.

Midterm Picture and Directional Sentiment

Democrats currently lead Republicans 44% to 42% in generic polling for the 2026 midterms. Not a massive gap, but enough to make political strategists on both sides pay attention.

There's a slight silver lining in broader sentiment data. When asked whether the country is headed in the right direction, voters showed modest improvement in January compared to November lows. Here's how different groups responded in January, with November figures in parentheses:

• All Voters: 41% (37%)
• Democrats: 17% (16%)
• Independents: 29% (25%)
• Republicans: 74% (69%)

The uptick is real but modest across all groups. Republicans remain overwhelmingly optimistic, while Democrats stay skeptical, and independents sit somewhere in the middle.

The bottom line? Both voters and investors will be watching closely to see what happens next in Venezuela and whether similar actions are on the table for other countries. If voters perceive Trump as too aggressive or unpredictable on foreign policy, his approval numbers could face more pressure in the months ahead.