Gordon Johnson, one of Wall Street's most vocal Tesla Inc. (TSLA) skeptics, has a message for investors: the narrative is crumbling, and what's left underneath isn't pretty.
The GLJ Research analyst maintained his Sell rating on the electric vehicle maker and raised his price target from $19.05 to $25.28. But here's the kicker: he also published what he calls a "generous" sum-of-the-parts valuation that puts Tesla at $63.85 per share. That's roughly 85% below where the stock closed Thursday at $435.80.
The Numbers Tell a Different Story
Johnson's concerns start with Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries, which missed estimates despite new vehicle discounts. Add in the end of ZEV credit purchase mandates for auto companies, and "the earnings math deteriorates quickly," according to the analyst.
While Tesla's energy generation and storage segment showed 12.1% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter, Johnson argues it's nowhere near enough to offset what's happening in the core automotive business.
The delivery trajectory looks grim in Johnson's view. After global deliveries fell 1.1% in 2024 and an estimated 7.7% in 2025, he's forecasting a 15% year-over-year decline in 2026. The culprits? Loss of the federal EV tax credit in the United States, fierce competition in China, and brand erosion in Europe.
Johnson expects both earnings per share and free cash flow to fall, making valuation metrics increasingly difficult to justify as competition intensifies across Tesla's various businesses.
The Narrative Problem
"When the story fades, the numbers are left standing alone," Johnson said. And that's exactly what he thinks is happening now.
The analyst points to CES as a turning point, arguing that Tesla no longer leads in autonomy or robotics—if it ever truly did. "What CES has made painfully clear is that Tesla no longer owns the lead in autonomy or robotics – if it ever did. Nvidia (NVDA) and Uber (UBER) on autonomy, Boston Dynamics on humanoids: these are narrative companies now doing the narrative thing."
Johnson sees Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) and Uber Technologies (UBER) as the new leaders in autonomy, with both companies positioned to benefit from recent product announcements. He poses a fundamental question: "If autonomy is now a commodity and robots work elsewhere, what exactly is Tesla worth?"
According to Johnson, Tesla's Level 2 driver-assistance system remains its only genuine competitive advantage, but that's a thin reed to support the current valuation.
Breaking Down the Math
Using peer companies like Figure AI, Waymo, Ford, and LG Electronics as comparables, Johnson calculated individual valuations for Tesla's business segments:
- Optimus robotics: $12.12 per share
- Full Self-Driving: $31.09 per share
- Automotive business: $17.09 per share
- Energy business: $3.54 per share
- Total valuation: $63.85 per share
"Once Tesla no longer leads in robots or autonomy, the story collapses – and the story is the stock. Fundamentals have not mattered for years," Johnson concluded.
Tesla stock has gained 10.2% over the past year and trades in a 52-week range of $214.25 to $498.82. Whether Johnson's bearish thesis gains traction or Tesla maintains its premium valuation remains one of the market's most polarizing debates.
