Here's something you don't see every day: crypto bettors are putting serious money on whether a Supreme Leader keeps his job. Prediction markets have dramatically increased the odds that Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could lose power this year as protests sweep the country and its economy crumbles.

The Betting Action Gets Serious

On Polymarket, the odds that Iran's Supreme Leader gets removed from power by mid-year have climbed to 36%, a sharp rise from 28% just one day earlier and 21% a week ago. That's the kind of movement that makes traders sit up and pay attention.

Breaking it down further, bettors are giving Khamenei a 25% chance of losing power by March 31, but only 12% odds of it happening by the end of January. More than $1 million has been wagered on the outcome so far. The market pays out if Khamenei resigns, gets detained, or otherwise loses his position.

Polymarket, which runs on the Polygon (POL) blockchain, added an unusual disclaimer to this contract. The platform noted that "after discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not."

What's Driving the Unrest

The betting action reflects real turmoil on the ground. Anti-regime protests have intensified throughout Iran, fueled by a collapsing currency and runaway inflation. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, a U.S.-based nonprofit, at least 36 people have been killed during the last 10 days of protests. Iranian authorities haven't provided their own death toll for protesters, though they've confirmed deaths among security personnel.

There are also reports of protesters taking control of the cities of Abdanan and Malekshahi in Iran's western Ilam province, though state media claims the situation is "completely normalized."

The Iranian Rial tells its own story, hitting record lows at 1.47 million rials to the dollar on the open market. The situation got bad enough that Parliament approved a monetary reform last year that will lop four zeros off the currency.

President Donald Trump weighed in last week, saying the U.S. would "rescue" Iranian protesters if the regime turns violent. Iran responded that any American intervention could "destabilize the entire region."