If you're looking for a smooth ride in 2026, Mark Newton from Fundstrat Global Advisors has some bad news: you're not getting one. The good news? He still thinks the S&P 500 ends the year at 7,300. The catch is what happens between now and then.

The Roadmap: Six Weeks Of Gains, Then Things Get Interesting

In a conversation with Yahoo Finance, Newton laid out his timeline for the year ahead. He expects the current rally to keep chugging along for another six to eight weeks before hitting resistance. Then comes the fun part.

"I do expect it's going to be a year of consolidation and choppiness... I think it's going to start likely in the latter part of February, early March where we start to see some pressure in stocks that likely lasts down to May," Newton explained.

Translation: enjoy January while it lasts, because spring could bring a drawdown potentially in the 15-20% range. That's not a prediction to take lightly, especially when it's coming from someone who's still fundamentally bullish on the market's direction.

Tech's Three-Year Party Needs A Breather

The main culprit behind Newton's consolidation call? Exhaustion in technology stocks. After what he describes as a "phenomenal three-year run," giants like Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) are showing signs they need to catch their breath.

Newton points out that many of these tech behemoths have been trading sideways for months already. His argument is straightforward: before the market can make another sustained move higher, these leaders need to consolidate their gains. You can't sprint forever, even if you're powered by AI hype.

Why The Bull Market Isn't Dead

Here's where it gets more optimistic. Newton isn't calling a top—he's calling a pause. The secular bull market remains very much alive, in his view, driven by the long-term artificial intelligence boom that's still in its early innings.

More importantly, he's seeing positive developments in market internals. Sectors beyond tech are starting to participate: industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks are all climbing. The Dow Jones Transportation Average just hit fresh highs on Wednesday at 18,131.95 points, which technical analysts view as a classic confirmation signal.

Newton also highlighted strength in the broader economy, particularly in labor market data. Layoff rates are dropping while quit rates are rising—exactly what you want to see when you're trying to gauge employment health. People don't quit their jobs when they're worried about the economy.

Commodities And Contrarian Bets

Newton's commodity calls are aggressive. He's projecting gold could hit $5,000 and silver $90 in the first half of the year, before interest rates potentially rise and put pressure on precious metals. Those are eye-popping numbers that would represent substantial gains from current levels.

On the flip side, he expects oil prices to bottom around mid-February, which he sees as a strong buying opportunity for energy stocks. If you're hunting for value, that's where Newton thinks you should be looking soon.

Within technology, he's taking a selective approach rather than painting the entire sector with the same brush. While cautious on the broader group, Newton specifically called out Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Tesla Inc. (TSLA)—both recent laggards—as attractive buys that could be poised for breakouts.

Where Markets Stand Now

For context, 2026 has started on a positive note for the major indices. The S&P 500 was up 0.62% year-to-date, the Dow Jones gained 1.85%, and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.51%.

On Thursday morning, however, things were softer. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 respectively, were both lower in premarket trading. SPY declined 0.20% to $688.19, while QQQ dropped 0.29% to $622.35, according to market data.

Newton's outlook is essentially this: the destination looks good, but the journey is going to test your stomach. If he's right, the strategy isn't to panic during the spring correction but to use it as an opportunity to position for the second-half recovery that gets the market to that 7,300 target. Easy to say now, of course. Considerably harder to execute when your portfolio is down 15% and everyone's screaming about a bear market.