Shell PLC (SHEL) dropped a pre-results update Wednesday, giving investors a preview of what's coming when full fourth-quarter numbers arrive on February 5, 2026. The picture is mixed: some segments look tighter and more predictable, while others are flagging notable weakness.

Production Guidance Gets More Precise

The energy giant narrowed its production forecast for the Integrated Gas segment to somewhere between 930,000 and 970,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That's a tighter range compared to the previous outlook of 920,000 to 980,000 boe/d. Not a massive shift, but it suggests Shell has a clearer picture of where things are landing.

On the trading front, the company expects Trading and Optimisation results to basically match what it delivered in the third quarter. Nothing exciting, but nothing terrible either.

LNG liquefaction volumes also got a small tweak, now projected at 7.5 to 7.9 million metric tons versus the earlier range of 7.4 to 8.0 million metric tons. Again, minor adjustment territory.

The Upstream segment saw similar fine-tuning, with production now expected around 1.84 million to 1.94 million boe/d, compared to the previous 1.77 million to 1.97 million boe/d range.

Refining Looks Better, Chemicals Look Worse

Here's where things get more interesting. Shell's refining business is performing better than anticipated. The company now expects refinery utilization between 93% and 97%, which is considerably stronger than the prior outlook of 87% to 95%. Refining margins are also looking healthier at around $14 per barrel for the quarter, up from $11.60 per barrel in Q3.

Chemical plant utilization improved slightly to a projected 75% to 79% range, versus earlier guidance of 71% to 79%. But here's the problem: adjusted earnings in the Chemicals and Products segment are expected to drop below breakeven in the fourth quarter. The culprit? A sharp decline in Trading and Optimisation contributions that's hitting the bottom line hard.

Marketing sales volumes are now projected at approximately 2.65 million to 2.75 million barrels per day, narrowed from the previous 2.50 million to 3.00 million b/d range. Marketing adjusted earnings are also expected to decline compared to the same quarter last year, partly due to a non-cash deferred tax adjustment tied to a joint venture.

Recent Dealmaking Activity

Outside the quarterly numbers, Shell has been busy reshaping its portfolio. The company recently finalized a deal with Equinor ASA (EQNR) to merge their U.K. offshore oil and gas operations into a new entity called Adura.

Shell also locked in a 15-year liquefied natural gas deal through its subsidiary, Shell International Trading Middle East Limited FZE, with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

Price Action: Shell shares dropped 2.75% to $69.56 during premarket trading on Thursday.