Bitcoin (BTC) bull and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has boiled down Trump's political calculus to a simple equation: print massive amounts of money to make voters feel rich, but keep gas prices from spiking so inflation doesn't wreck your midterm chances. If liquidity increases while gas stays cheap, Bitcoin moons. If oil spikes, the crypto rally dies.

The Political Math Behind Cheap Gas

In his latest essay, Hayes outlines what he calls the "10% rule" that's historically decided American elections. When national average gas prices climb 10% or more in the three months leading up to an election compared to January of that year, control of government flips parties. It's a brutally simple metric that's proven surprisingly reliable.

That's why Trump moved on Venezuela, Hayes argues. The country sits on the world's largest proven oil reserves, and the administration believes it can flood Gulf Coast refineries with cheap Venezuelan crude. The goal? Keep gas prices flat while printing trillions to goose the economy ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Two Paths for Bitcoin

Hayes lays out two scenarios that will determine Bitcoin's trajectory:

• Scenario 1 (Bullish): Trump prints aggressively, the economy heats up, but oil prices stay stable because Venezuelan supply floods the market. More dollars chasing the same assets equals higher Bitcoin prices.
• Scenario 2 (Bearish): Trump prints aggressively, the economy heats up, and oil prices spike because Venezuelan oil doesn't materialize quickly enough. This forces Trump to slam the brakes on money printing to avoid an inflation crisis, killing Bitcoin's rally.

The metric that matters most? Watch 10-year Treasury yields. When they approach 5%, that signals the bond market is panicking about inflation, and that's when Trump would be forced to pull back.

Hayes points to Liberation Day last April as the template. Trump threatened massive tariffs, markets crashed, the MOVE Index spiked to 172, and within seven days Trump reversed course to calm the markets.

Hayes' Base Case: Print Now, Worry Later

Hayes is betting on the bullish scenario. He thinks the market will believe Venezuelan oil is coming online, keeping prices suppressed and giving Trump room to print freely.

"Just focus on the fact that Trump is going to run the money printer faster than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu changes the goal posts on Iran," Hayes wrote.

He references 2020, when Trump printed trillions and distributed cash directly to Americans. Hayes argues Trump won't lose an election because he refused to print money. He'll print no matter what, as long as oil prices cooperate.

Hayes also presents charts showing Bitcoin tracks dollar liquidity almost perfectly. When the money supply expands, Bitcoin rises.

"Real traders must stop attaching emotions to words like socialism, communism, capitalism," Hayes said. "Just BUY!"

Maximum Risk Position

Hayes' fund Maelstrom entered 2026 with what he calls "almost maximum risk," holding minimal dollar stablecoins. The firm maintains a long Bitcoin position but is selling BTC to fund positions in privacy coins, betting that fiat credit expansion will drive altcoins higher.