The holiday quarter has always been make-or-break time for Walt Disney Co (DIS), and analysts are watching Florida tourism data closely to gauge how the entertainment giant is performing.
What Goldman Sachs Is Seeing
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng maintains a Buy rating with a $151 price target, pointing to encouraging signs from the Orlando market. October data shows the region is "strong and growing," which bodes well for Disney's final quarter of 2025, according to Ng's recent note.
The real tell? Lake Buena Vista trends, which Ng considers the best proxy for Disney's performance. Hotel occupancy and revenue per available room in the area are both improving year-over-year. Based on these indicators, Goldman expects Disney to report a 1% year-on-year increase in domestic attendance for its fiscal first quarter, which covers the fourth quarter of calendar year 2025.
BofA's More Cautious Take
BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich also maintains a Buy rating, though with a more conservative $140 price target. She notes that Disney has "several moving parts in the underlying business" this quarter.
On the film side, Zootopia 2's impressive box office performance is likely to be offset by "softer performance in some of the live action titles in the quarter," Ehrlich wrote. Meanwhile, the Experiences division probably faced headwinds from fewer international visitors.
The silver lining? Disney is facing an easier comparison this year since hurricanes disrupted operations during the same period last year. And looking ahead, the company is preparing to launch the Disney Adventure in March 2026, which will be its largest ship yet.
DIS Price Action: Shares of Walt Disney had risen 0.32% to $114.44 at the time of publication on Tuesday.
