The global oil market just got a new variable to worry about, and Goldman Sachs thinks it matters more than most people realize. Venezuela's political upheaval isn't going to move prices dramatically overnight, but it could quietly reshape the supply picture over the next several years in ways that tilt increasingly bearish.

In a research note this week, analysts led by Daan Struyven laid out how the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro creates "two-sided" risks for oil prices in 2026, while reinforcing a more negative supply story beyond that timeframe.

From 3 Million Barrels to 800,000: Venezuela's Collapse

To understand what's at stake, you need to grasp how far Venezuela has fallen. Back in the mid-2000s, the country pumped roughly 3 million barrels per day, making it one of the world's largest oil suppliers. Venezuela still sits on about one-fifth of global proven oil reserves—the largest share of any country on the planet.

But a decade of underinvestment, infrastructure decay, and sanctions under Maduro's rule knocked crude production down by about 1.5 million barrels per day. Goldman now pegs output at roughly 800,000 barrels per day, down from about 930,000 barrels per day in late 2025.

What happens next is genuinely uncertain. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will be "very strongly involved" in Venezuela's oil industry going forward, while emphasizing that the embargo on Venezuelan crude "remains in full effect." Policy uncertainty, in other words, is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

2026: Two Paths, Both Plausible

Goldman modeled two scenarios for Venezuelan crude production by the end of 2026, and they point in opposite directions.

In the downside case, production gradually declines by 0.4 million barrels per day due to storage bottlenecks, lack of blending components, or continued export disruptions. That would push Brent and WTI—with the latter tracked by the United States Oil Fund (USO)—to average $58 and $54, about $2 above Goldman's base forecast.

In the upside scenario, production rises by 0.4 million barrels per day, helped by higher diluent imports, repairs to wells and upgraders, and an eventual lifting of the U.S. oil embargo. That would drag Brent and WTI down to $54 and $50 in 2026, roughly $2 below baseline.

"We see ambiguous but modest risks to oil prices in the short run from Venezuela depending on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves," Struyven wrote.

The Longer-Term Picture Looks Bearish

Beyond 2026, the picture gets clearer—and less friendly to oil bulls. Alongside recent production increases in Russia and the United States, the possibility of a gradual recovery in Venezuela adds to medium- and long-term supply pressures.

If Venezuelan output climbs to 2 million barrels per day by 2030—versus 900,000 barrels per day in Goldman's base case—the bank estimates roughly $4 per barrel of downside to its $80 Brent forecast for that year.

There's also a structural wrinkle: Venezuela produces heavy, diesel-rich crude. A slow return of those barrels could weigh on one of the energy market's strongest themes in recent years—bullish diesel margins. Additional heavy barrels would increase supply precisely where refiners have benefited from prolonged scarcity.

So while 2026 remains a coin flip, the longer-term implications tilt decidedly toward more oil, lower prices, and a meaningful shift in global supply dynamics.