The past year wasn't exactly kind to IPO hopefuls. Markets spent most of 2025 dealing with policy chaos around President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs and a government shutdown that essentially froze new listings. Not the best environment for companies trying to make their public debut.
But as we move into 2026, prediction market data suggests investor sentiment might be shifting. Artificial intelligence buzz continues to fuel optimism, and traders are placing real money on which companies they think will actually make it to the public markets.
Sure, everyone's talking about the big names like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. But according to Kalshi, a real-money prediction market where people bet on future events, there are some less obvious contenders quietly gaining traction. Here's what the odds looked like as of Friday.
The Companies Traders Think Will Go Public
Kraken leads the pack with an 83% probability. The crypto exchange has already confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, which gives it a head start. The timing makes sense too—digital asset companies are rushing to tap equity markets before the 2026 midterm elections potentially shake things up.
Cerebras Systems comes in at 77%. The AI chipmaker has had a rocky path to going public. After filing confidential IPO paperwork in 2024, Cerebras withdrew the filing in October 2025 following reported regulatory review tied to an Abu Dhabi investor. Now the Nvidia (NVDA) rival is reportedly gearing up to re-file as early as the second quarter of 2026.
Databricks sits at 70%. The San Francisco AI software company raised over $4 billion last month at a stunning $134 billion valuation. That kind of fundraising at that valuation makes this one of the most anticipated tech IPOs on the horizon.
Discord also shows 70% odds. The communication platform has become essential infrastructure for gaming communities and countless online groups. Despite being private for more than a decade and raising substantial funding at a roughly $15 billion valuation, Discord hasn't yet taken the public leap. Traders seem to think that's about to change.
Beyond those top names, fintech company Plaid has a 49% chance of announcing IPO plans before 2027. Defense technology firm Anduril and Kim Kardashian's shapewear brand Skims both sit at 46%, according to Kalshi data.
What's interesting here isn't just the names—it's that traders are putting actual money behind these predictions. Prediction markets tend to aggregate information in useful ways, pricing in both public signals and informed speculation about what's happening behind closed doors at these companies.
Whether these probabilities hold up remains to be seen. Market conditions can shift quickly, and an IPO timeline can extend or accelerate based on everything from regulatory approvals to broader economic sentiment. But for investors watching the pipeline of companies preparing to go public, these odds offer a glimpse into where the smart money is placing its bets.
