Ethereum (ETH) just logged 1.87 million daily transactions on Dec. 31, absolutely crushing its previous record from the NFT and DeFi frenzy of May 2021. The network is buzzing with activity, fees are down, and major upgrades are working exactly as planned. So why is the price still face-planting at $3,200?
The Network Is On Fire
Ethereum's 7-day moving average of daily transactions reached 1.87 million on the last day of 2024, blowing past the old all-time high of 1.61 million from May 2021, according to The Block. The network also recorded 728,904 active addresses on that day, the highest count since May 12, 2021, and added 270,160 brand new addresses in a single 24-hour period—the biggest daily jump since early 2018.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, pointed to network upgrades that slashed fees and boosted scalability as the main drivers. Add in institutional money flowing through ETFs and the explosion of real-world asset tokenization, and you've got a recipe for serious network growth.
Two Major Upgrades Changed Everything
The transaction boom didn't happen by accident. Two massive 2025 upgrades, Pectra and Fusaka, completely transformed Ethereum's capabilities.
Pectra increased blob throughput, introduced account abstraction to make wallets easier to use, and raised the staking limits for validators. Fusaka activated PeerDAS, which streamlined data availability sampling so the network could handle higher blob counts without overwhelming individual nodes.
Together with higher gas limits and breakthroughs in zkEVM technology, these upgrades demolished transaction costs and advanced Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap. And there's more coming. Glamsterdam arrives in early-to-mid 2026 with performance and decentralization improvements, followed by Hegota in the second half of 2026 targeting long-term sustainability.
The Price Isn't Getting The Memo
Here's the frustrating part for ETH holders: despite all this network activity, the price is stuck under the 20 EMA at $3,373 on the weekly chart. The RSI sits at 43.92, not quite oversold but definitely bleeding momentum. Every rally attempt since August 2024 has failed to push RSI above 60, which is a classic bear market signal even inside what looks like a larger bull structure.
On the daily chart, Ethereum is testing a descending trendline right around $3,100-$3,200. The price keeps wicking above the line but gets smacked down immediately—no follow-through, no conviction from buyers. The Supertrend indicator at $3,296 and the SAR are both acting as overhead resistance. Without a daily close above $3,200 backed by solid volume, this breakout is looking more like a fake-out.
Bulls Need A Clean Break Or The Dream Dies
For bulls to keep the $6,000 narrative alive, ETH needs to close above $3,200 on the daily chart and then hold that level as support on any retest. If that happens, the door opens to $3,400, then $3,600, and eventually that $6,000 target everyone's been talking about.
But if ETH gets rejected here—like it has repeatedly over the past few months—the descending triangle pattern confirms, and a breakdown to $2,800 or lower kills any hope of hitting $6,000 in Q1. Weekly support sits at $3,009 (the 100 EMA), with the final line in the sand at $2,608 (the 200 EMA).
The Setup For A Surprise?
Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, isn't giving up on Ethereum. He pointed out that ETH still dominates stablecoin activity, real-world assets, yield protocols, trading, gaming, and NFTs—either directly on Ethereum or on EVM-compatible chains. His take? The setup for a massive surprise is forming as investors capitulate on the tame price action.
The network fundamentals have never been stronger. Whether the price finally catches up is the billion-dollar question hanging over Q1 2025.
