The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) wrapped up 2025 with a 17.1% gain, capping off a year that saw multiple record highs and delivering returns that landed squarely in the bullish camp. Back in January, we asked investors what they thought Trump's return to the White House would mean for markets—and it turns out the optimists were onto something.

The Prediction Game

At the start of 2025, with President Donald Trump heading back to the White House, investors faced an interesting reference point. In 2017, Trump's first year in office, SPY jumped 21.7%. Would history repeat itself? We polled readers in January asking what they expected for his first year back.

Here's how the predictions broke down:

• 16%+ gain: 26%
• 11% to 15% gain: 22%
• Will Decline: 22%
• 6% to 10% gain: 19%
• 0% to 5% gain: 12%

The bulls won this round. The 26% who went with the most aggressive call—predicting gains of at least 16%—nailed it. The actual 17.1% return landed right in their zone, proving that sometimes optimism and accuracy go hand in hand.

The second-most popular prediction, calling for an 11% to 15% gain, came respectably close but ended up a touch conservative. Meanwhile, the 22% who predicted a decline missed by the widest margin, as the market delivered exactly the opposite of what they expected.

The Magnificent Seven Miss

If investors got the overall market right, they completely whiffed on the Magnificent Seven. We asked which of the big tech stocks would lead the pack in 2025, and nearly half—48%—picked NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as the winner. The semiconductor darling seemed like the obvious choice after its AI-driven surge.

But Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) had other plans. Google's parent company ended up outperforming the rest of the group in 2025, despite earning just 6% of votes and ranking fifth in the poll. Sometimes the market's favorite and the crowd's favorite are very different things.

Putting 2025 in Context

The 17.1% gain looks even more interesting when you zoom out. It marked the fourth-best return in the last five years for the S&P 500. Here's the recent scorecard:

• 2024: +24.9%
• 2023: +26.2%
• 2022: -18.2%
• 2021: +28.8%

Looking at Trump's track record specifically, 2025's performance ranks as the fourth-best across the five full years he's been in office. Here's how those years played out:

• 2020: +18.4%
• 2019: +31.2%
• 2018: -4.6%
• 2017: +21.7%

Three out of four years during Trump's first term delivered strong positive returns. And looking at the broader pattern, investors enjoyed gains of 24% or more in three of the four years leading up to 2025. The question now is whether 2026 will continue the streak or throw another curveball. After a year where the bulls got it right, everyone's wondering if they can do it again.