Silver just wrapped up a blowout year, rocketing to $80 an ounce and leaving just about everything else in the dust. The surge has caught the attention of speculators on crypto prediction markets, who are now placing bets on where the white metal heads next.

Prediction Markets Light Up

On Polymarket, the odds of silver reaching a record $90 per ounce by the end of January climbed to 26%, up from 22% just a day earlier. The chances of it crossing $85 jumped even more dramatically, rising from 29% to 45%.

But here's the twist: bookmakers are assigning an 84% probability—the highest among all possible outcomes—that silver will actually drop below $70 during this same period. And the odds of the metal hitting $100? Those fell to just 14%.

The market resolves to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for silver futures equals or exceeds the specified price on any trading day by January's final session.

Polymarket operates on the Polygon (POL) blockchain and lets users buy "Yes" and "No" shares using USDC (USDC). When the market settles, shares representing the correct outcome pay out $1 USDC each. The platform is gradually reopening to U.S. users through a waitlist system.

An Absolutely Wild Rally

These betting odds come on the heels of a rally that's pushed silver to its strongest annual performance since the late 1970s. We're talking about serious gains here.

Year-to-date, spot silver has climbed over 140%, decisively outpacing gold, equities, and even Bitcoin (BTC). The driving force? Acute physical shortages in China, where a retail buying frenzy has collided head-on with extremely tight supply.

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV), an ETF that tracks the metal's price, has surged 161% this year, reflecting just how dramatic this move has been.

Earlier this year, Maria Smirnova, a portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management, argued that silver's rally was only just getting started. Her reasoning? Shrinking supply could potentially trigger a price squeeze, sending the metal even higher.

Where Things Stand Now

At the time of writing, spot silver traded at $73.05 an ounce, down 4.22% over the previous 24 hours. Meanwhile, the SLV ETF closed 4.50% higher at $68.98 during Tuesday's regular trading session, showing the kind of volatility that's become typical for this market.

The question now is whether silver's extraordinary run continues into 2026, or whether the metal is due for a correction. Prediction market traders are clearly split, and given silver's recent performance, it's not hard to see why both scenarios feel plausible.