If 2024 was Intel Corporation (INTC)'s nightmare year, 2025 is shaping up to be its redemption arc. The chipmaker hemorrhaged more than half its market value last year and got unceremoniously booted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average after a quarter-century run. Ouch. But here's the twist: since getting kicked out, Intel stock has absolutely ripped higher, and it's actually beating the company that replaced it.

From Dow Darling to Dow Reject

On November 8, 2024, Intel was removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, tracked by the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA), and replaced by semiconductor powerhouse NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). The move felt inevitable. Intel had been struggling for years, and the performance numbers were brutal.

Here's a depressing stat: Intel actually lost money over its entire 25-year stint in the Dow. When it joined the index on November 1, 1999, shares traded between $37.97 and $39.16 (not adjusted for dividends). On removal day? Between $25.83 and $26.43. That's going backwards for a quarter century.

The 2024 numbers were especially ugly. Intel stock crashed 59.6%, making it the second-worst performer in the Dow that year. Only Walgreens had a worse showing, down 63.2%.

The Comeback Nobody Saw Coming

Then 2025 happened. Intel shares have rocketed 80% year-to-date at the time of writing, powered by renewed AI fever sweeping through the semiconductor sector and fresh capital from the U.S. government.

Plot twist: Nvidia itself now owns a piece of Intel. The AI chip giant completed a purchase first announced in September, accumulating roughly 214 million Intel shares. So now both Nvidia and the U.S. government have skin in Intel's game.

The Irony of the Swap

Here's where things get interesting. Intel and Nvidia are now connected through more than just industry rivalry. When Intel got the boot from the Dow on November 8, 2024, Nvidia seemed like the obvious upgrade. Bigger company, faster growth, AI darling. Many analysts thought the swap was overdue.

But the timing was awkward, to put it mildly. Nvidia shares slumped for months after joining the index, and more than a year later, haven't exactly lived up to the hype many expected.

Meanwhile, Intel has been on fire. Since its Dow removal, Intel shares are up 40.1%, compared to just a 25.9% gain for Nvidia over the same stretch. Both crushed the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA)'s 14.3% year-to-date return, but Intel's stronger performance raises an uncomfortable question: was the swap poorly timed, or should Nvidia have been added years earlier?

Looking Forward

Intel joined the Dow on November 1, 1999, alongside Microsoft. They were the first Nasdaq-listed companies and among the earliest major tech names to crack the blue-chip index. Cisco, Apple, and Amazon.com have since followed that path.

Nvidia may ultimately prove to be the stronger long-term addition to the Dow. But for index investors and the ETFs tracking the Dow, the timing of swapping Intel for Nvidia was far from ideal. Sometimes in markets, being right too late is almost as bad as being wrong.