If you've found yourself frantically Googling whether your trash pickup is delayed this holiday week, congratulations on being extremely normal. And those companies behind the green and blue trucks you're tracking? They've had a pretty solid year making money off America's never-ending stream of garbage.
Waste Management Inc. (WM) closed at $220.34 on Tuesday, up roughly 9% year-to-date. Its main competitor Republic Services Inc. (RSG) finished at $213.06, posting a gain of about 5.91% for the year. Neither stock is setting the world on fire, but both are hanging in there with the kind of steady performance you'd expect from companies in a business that's about as recession-proof as it gets.
Both stocks are trading below their summer highs in the mid-$250s, but they remain well above their 52-week lows. Turns out the decidedly unglamorous business of hauling garbage generates pretty reliable demand regardless of what's happening in the broader economy.
The Numbers Behind the Bins
The fundamentals tell a story of steady, unsexy growth. Waste Management's third-quarter revenue climbed to about $6.4 billion from $5.6 billion a year earlier. The company has been focused on disciplined growth, cost optimization, and expanding sustainability projects including new renewable natural gas facilities and recycling investments. Apparently you can make decent money turning trash into renewable energy.
Republic Services posted third-quarter revenue of $4.2 billion, up 3.3% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.90 and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.8%. That margin represents an 80-basis-point improvement despite softer volumes, which is actually impressive when you think about it. Management now expects full-year 2025 revenue near the low end of its guidance range but reaffirmed all other targets, signaling confidence in margins and cash generation even if top-line growth is a bit muted.
What Wall Street Thinks
Wall Street remains broadly constructive on both companies. Recent analyst ratings lean Buy, with price targets mostly clustered in the mid-$230s to mid-$260s. That suggests modest upside from current levels even after a choppy second half of the year.
Looking at the quality metrics, Republic Services earns a standout Quality score of 90.09 in stock rankings that measure momentum, value, growth and quality, signaling strong fundamentals despite softer momentum and value readings. Waste Management shows a middling Quality score of 51.82 with subdued Momentum and Value scores of 28.02 and 21.43 respectively, though it maintains a positive short and medium-term price trend.
The Bottom Line
So after you've confirmed whether your bins go out a day late this week, here's the market's verdict: America's trash problem continues to be a quietly profitable business for the companies picking it up. No one's getting rich quick in garbage collection, but steady wins the race when you're in a business people literally can't live without.
