Carnival Corporation (CCL) shares climbed Monday after the cruise operator delivered a fourth quarter that put lingering pricing concerns to bed. The company posted record profits and cash flow, prompting analysts to reassess their outlook for the world's largest cruise operator.
Goldman Sachs analyst Lizzie Dove responded by raising her price target to $34 from $31 while maintaining a Buy rating. The move reflects growing confidence that Carnival's momentum can carry into 2026, even as questions about broader cruise demand persist.
The Numbers Tell a Strong Story
Carnival reported adjusted earnings of 34 cents per share, crushing the consensus estimate by 9 cents. Revenue reached a fourth-quarter record of $6.33 billion, up $400 million year-over-year, though it landed slightly below the $6.37 billion analysts had penciled in.
Looking ahead, the company expects adjusted earnings of 17 cents per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, just shy of the 18-cent estimate. But the full-year 2026 guidance tells a more optimistic tale: Carnival forecasts approximately $2.48 per share in adjusted earnings, comfortably ahead of the $2.42 consensus.
Why This Quarter Mattered
Dove highlighted that Carnival exceeded expectations despite ongoing uncertainty in the cruise market. The company's diversified portfolio, brand upgrades, and investments in private island destinations are paying off in ways that show up in the financials.
The real standout? Carnival beat its fourth-quarter net yield guidance by 110 basis points, a key metric that suggests near-term trends held up better than feared. Same-ship pricing climbed more than 4% (excluding the impact of Celebration Key), which should quiet worries about Caribbean demand softness and pricing pressure heading into 2026.
That strong net yield performance establishes a solid baseline for the company's 2026 guidance, according to Dove. While first-quarter fiscal 2026 guidance came in roughly in line with expectations, the analyst believes Carnival's net yield growth outlook for the full year takes a measured, conservative approach.
Growth Expected to Accelerate
The company's growth trajectory is getting a boost from Celebration Key and RelaxAway, though management appears to be factoring in a conservative deceleration from fourth-quarter exit rates. Dove expects underlying net yield growth to pick up steam as the year progresses, with anticipated growth of 1.8% in the first quarter, 2.9% in the second quarter, 3.2% in the third quarter, and 2.6% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
CCL Price Action: Carnival shares were up 3.08% at $32.08 at the time of publication on Monday. The stock is trading near its 52-week high of $32.79.
