The political clock is ticking on a piece of pandemic-era health policy that millions of Americans have come to depend on. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says he's confident the House will pass a three-year extension of expiring Affordable Care Act tax credits "with a bipartisan majority," even though Senate Republicans are signaling they'd rather let the subsidies die.

Democrats Promise a Fight, Republicans Promise a Problem

Speaking on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, the New York Democrat pledged that House Democrats would keep the pressure on to renew the enhanced subsidies, which were expanded during the pandemic and are scheduled to expire on Dec. 31.

"House Democrats are going to continue to fight to get this extension through the Congress on our side. It will pass, with a bipartisan majority," Jeffries said. He added that he plans to "put the pressure on John Thune and Senate Republicans to actually do the right thing … so we can keep health care affordable for tens of millions of Americans."

A Rare Discharge Petition Forces Leadership's Hand

Jeffries has reason to be optimistic, at least about the House. Last week, four House Republicans broke ranks and joined a Democratic discharge petition to force a January vote on a clean three-year extension. That move defied Speaker Mike Johnson and other GOP leaders who had advanced their own health bill that conveniently leaves out the credits, according to the Associated Press.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans blocked legislation to extend the subsidies last week, essentially locking in higher premiums for 2026 unless Congress changes course. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from earlier this month found that a narrow majority of Americans actually support keeping the aid in place.

What's Really at Stake Here

The enhanced ACA premium tax credits were first rolled out in 2021 and extended through 2025 by the Inflation Reduction Act. They've helped somewhere between 19 and 22 million people afford marketplace coverage, according to KFF and federal data.

If Congress doesn't act, KFF estimates that average annual premium payments for subsidized enrollees would more than double in 2026, jumping from roughly $888 to about $1,900. That's not a minor increase.

Republicans who oppose renewal say the subsidies are costly and distort the private insurance market. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky has been pushing alternatives like Association Health Plans. In a separate ABC News interview on Sunday, he argued that "Obamacare has been a failure… Every time we give more subsidies, the premiums go higher." Other conservatives want to redirect ACA funding straight to consumers or into health savings accounts instead.