President Donald Trump is wrapping up his first year back in office with approval numbers that are, well, exactly where they've been most of the year. After dipping to 41% during last month's government shutdown, his ratings have climbed back to around 45%, according to Decision Desk HQ's polling aggregate.

That 45% figure is pretty much his average since returning to the White House. Not great, not terrible—just consistently middle-of-the-road. As Scott Tranter, the director of data science for DDHQ, put it to The Hill: "Roughly a year in, he's right in the middle. He's right where, basically, he's been all year, which is unremarkable. It's remarkable because it's unremarkable."

The year started strong for Trump. Fresh off his 2024 victory, inauguration enthusiasm pushed his numbers higher. But that honeymoon period didn't last long. His approval took a hit in the spring when his administration rolled out an aggressive immigration crackdown and slapped steep tariffs on trading partners, sending jitters through the stock market.

By late April, Trump's approval had slumped to about 44%. Then something interesting happened: people adjusted. As the initial shock of the tariffs wore off and immigration headlines faded from the front page, his ratings recovered to 48% by June.

Enter the fall government shutdown. The prolonged standoff introduced fresh economic headaches and dragged Trump's approval down to that second-term low of 41%. Once the shutdown ended in mid-November, his numbers bounced back to their current 45% level, though that's still below where he stood when he first returned to the Oval Office.

Individual polls paint an even tougher picture. A recent Emerson College Polling survey pegged his approval at 41%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll had him at 39%. An Associated Press/NORC poll from early December showed just 36% support, down from 42% in March.

The economy is clearly the sticking point. Despite Trump's rosy assessment—he told Politico the economy deserves an "A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus" rating and dismissed affordability concerns as a Democratic "con job"—voters aren't buying it.

A Harvard CAPS Harris poll this month found that nearly six in 10 voters, including 21% of Republicans, think the president is losing the battle against inflation. Affordability and inflation consistently rank as voters' top concerns.

The numbers get worse. More than seven in 10 respondents in a Fox News poll described economic conditions as poor, and nearly six in 10 said the Trump administration is focused on the wrong priorities, according to The Hill.

Trump has tried to blame his predecessor for the affordability crisis, but that narrative isn't sticking either. A Quinnipiac University poll shows that 57% of respondents believe Trump bears more responsibility for the current state of the economy than the previous administration.

So as Trump heads into 2026, he's facing a disconnect: his own glowing economic self-assessment versus public polling that shows widespread frustration with high tariffs, elevated prices, and cost-of-living pressures. His approval rating might be stable, but that stability comes with some of the lowest economic marks of his presidency.