When the Report Card Doesn't Match the Self-Assessment

President Trump recently told Politico he'd give his economic performance an "A+" rating. Then he reconsidered and upgraded himself to "A+++++." It's the kind of confident self-evaluation that might work in a boardroom, but voters are apparently using a different grading rubric.

According to a new Emerson College poll, we're approaching the end of Trump's first year back in office with approval numbers that have essentially mirror-flipped since January. His overall approval rating now sits at 41%, with 50% disapproving. Back in January, those numbers were reversed: 49% approval and 41% disapproval. The polling company notes this represents a complete reversal from the inaugural survey.

The shift didn't happen overnight. Trump maintained higher approval than disapproval from January through March. In April, the numbers tied at 45% each. Since then, disapproval has consistently outpaced approval every single month.

The Economy Gets Mixed Reviews

Here's where things get interesting. When voters were asked to grade Trump specifically on the economy, the results paint a picture that's considerably less rosy than the president's self-assessment:

• A grade: 22%
• B grade: 19%
• C grade: 13%
• D grade: 11%
• F grade: 36%

So while Trump is handing out A pluses with extra plus signs, more voters are giving him a failing grade than any other single mark. In fact, the F grades outnumber the A grades by a considerable margin.

The poll also graded Trump on other key issues. On immigration, he received 37% A's and 36% F's, making it the only topic where he earned more top grades than failing ones. For affordability, just 17% gave him an A, and health care scored even lower with only 14% awarding top marks.

The economy ranked as the top concern for voters in the poll at 38%, followed by threats to democracy, health care, and immigration. So the issue where Trump is performing worst in voters' eyes is also the one they care about most.

When Stock Markets and Main Street Diverge

This disconnect is particularly notable because the president has been actively touting stock market performance. He's repeatedly celebrated the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting all-time highs, and the numbers do back up some bragging rights.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), which tracks the benchmark index, is up 16.2% year-to-date and trading near record levels. That's a solid performance by any reasonable standard. But here's the twist: if the year ended today, that return would only rank as the seventh best of the last decade.

More importantly, those market gains clearly aren't translating into voter enthusiasm. Trump recently claimed that inflation is essentially gone, but voters across the country are experiencing higher prices on everyday items and across multiple sectors. The disconnect between Wall Street's record highs and Main Street's economic anxiety appears to be a real problem for the administration.

Looking Ahead to 2028

The poll also tested generic ballot preferences for the next presidential election, and the results suggest potential headwinds for Republicans. When asked about a hypothetical 2028 matchup without specific names, 44% of voters said they'd back a Democratic candidate versus 42% supporting a Republican candidate. Fifteen percent remained undecided.

It's early, of course. Three years is an eternity in politics, and voter sentiment can shift dramatically. But for now, the data suggests that stock market records and presidential self-congratulation aren't winning over the electorate. When voters are paying more for groceries and gas, charts showing the S&P 500 at new highs might not feel particularly relevant to their daily lives.

The gap between Trump's "A+++++" self-assessment and voters' actual grades highlights a fundamental challenge: managing perceptions of economic performance when different segments of the population are experiencing very different economic realities.