Walt Disney Company (DIS) is closing out 2025 with what could be two of the year's most anticipated releases, and the timing couldn't be better for the entertainment giant's fiscal calendar. "Zootopia 2" hit theaters in November, and now "Avatar: Fire and Ash" is arriving just in time to make Disney's first fiscal quarter look very, very good.
The third Avatar film isn't just another sequel. It's the follow-up to two movies that have dominated box office record books for years. And if early tracking is any indication, this one could deliver the kind of numbers that make both Disney shareholders and movie theater operators very happy.
How Big Could This Opening Be?
"Avatar: Fire and Ash" pulled in around $12 million on Thursday previews, according to Deadline. That's just the appetizer. The film is tracking for a domestic opening weekend between $90 million and $105 million, with international estimates ranging from $250 million to $275 million.
Add it all up, and you're looking at a potential worldwide opening weekend of $340 million to $365 million. That's massive by any standard.
But here's the thing about Avatar films: the opening weekend is just the beginning. These movies have serious staying power. The original "Avatar" opened with $77 million domestically back in 2009, then proceeded to sit at number one for seven consecutive weeks. "Avatar: The Way of Water" started with $134 million in 2022 and similarly refused to leave theaters.
The full box office runs tell the real story:
- "Avatar" (2009): $785.2 million domestic, $2.14 billion international, $2.92 billion worldwide
- "Avatar: The Way of Water" (2022): $688.5 million domestic, $1.65 billion international, $2.34 billion worldwide
Those numbers put the original "Avatar" at fourth place domestically and first globally for all-time box office gross. The sequel sits at seventh domestically and third worldwide. When you're making a third film in a franchise with that kind of track record, expectations run high.
Disney's One-Two Punch
The Avatar sequel isn't arriving alone. Disney (DIS) released "Zootopia 2" on November 26, and that film has already proven itself a major hit. The animated sequel has grossed $266.2 million domestically and $1.15 billion worldwide in less than a month, making it the second-highest-grossing film globally for 2025 and the eighth-highest domestically.
For context, the original "Zootopia" from 2016 brought in $341.3 million domestically and $1.03 billion worldwide. The sequel is on pace to exceed those totals handily.
The timing matters for Disney's fiscal year. The company's first fiscal quarter covers October, November, and most of December, which means most of "Zootopia 2's" success and the initial "Avatar: Fire and Ash" haul will land in that reporting period. The second fiscal quarter should capture the Avatar film's extended theatrical run.
What This Means for Theater Stocks
When a genuine blockbuster hits theaters, it's not just Disney that benefits. AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) and Imax Corporation (IMAX) stand to gain significantly from a film with this kind of draw.
Consider what happened with the previous Avatar releases. Both films played on Imax screens and each generated over $200 million through that premium format alone. The two films rank among the highest-grossing Imax releases ever. The projected $340 million to $365 million opening suggests Imax is expecting particularly strong results this time around.
For perspective, the highest-grossing film domestically in December 2024 was "Moana 2" with $213.4 million. "Avatar: Fire and Ash" should blow past that figure just from December 19 through year-end.
Looking Ahead to 2026
While 2025 is ending strong, theater chains and Disney are even more excited about what's coming in 2026.
"We expect the fourth quarter industrywide box office will turn out to be the highest-grossing fourth quarter in six years," AMC CEO Adam Aron said following third quarter results. "We also continue to believe that the size of the 2026 box office will be dramatically larger than that achieved in 2025."
Disney's 2026 slate backs up that optimism. "The Mandalorian and Grogu" will be the studio's first theatrical Star Wars film since 2019. "Toy Story 5" and a live-action "Moana" are also on the calendar. But the potential crown jewel is "Avengers: Doomsday," scheduled for December 2026 with a cast featuring numerous returning Marvel characters. Previous Avengers films have ranked among the highest-grossing movies of all time.
If "Avatar: Fire and Ash" performs as expected, it won't just boost Disney's near-term results. It will set the stage for what could be an exceptional run for both the studio and movie theaters heading into next year.
