Nike Inc. (NKE) is set to deliver its second-quarter financial results Thursday after the bell, and investors are looking for tangible evidence that the sportswear giant's turnaround efforts are actually working. The question isn't just about beating estimates anymore, it's about whether Nike can prove it's ready to grow again after a rough stretch.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts are projecting second-quarter revenue of $12.22 billion, which would represent a slight decline from $12.35 billion in the same period last year, according to data from Benzinga Pro. On the earnings front, expectations sit at 38 cents per share, down considerably from 78 cents per share a year ago.

Here's the thing though: Nike has developed a nice habit of exceeding expectations. The company has beaten revenue estimates in four straight quarters and in six of the last 10 overall. More impressively, it's topped earnings per share estimates for nine consecutive quarters. A tenth straight beat would be a solid confidence builder.

What the Analyst Community Is Thinking

Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson recently reiterated a Buy rating with an $84 price target, highlighting Nike's strategy to reach value-conscious shoppers through moves like expanding its presence on Amazon. The real test, according to Hutchinson, will be the third-quarter guidance, which could signal that Nike is finally turning the corner after working through inventory issues and refocusing on product innovation. She also flagged China as a critical area to monitor, noting the potential for a gradual recovery in that market.

Wall Street remains somewhat divided on the stock. BTIG maintains a Buy rating with a $100 price target, showing the most optimism in the bunch. Telsey sits at Market Perform with a $75 target, while Guggenheim recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $77 target. On the more cautious side, Citigroup holds a Neutral rating and recently lowered its price target from $74 to $70.

The Critical Items to Monitor

Beyond the headline numbers, guidance and China performance are the two factors likely to move the stock most significantly. In the first quarter, overall revenue grew 1% year-over-year, with North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, and Asia Pacific and Latin America all posting growth. China was the outlier, with revenue declining 9% year-over-year.

CEO Elliott Hill struck a measured tone after last quarter's results, saying the company was "getting wins under our belt" while acknowledging there's still "work ahead." Management has also cautioned that different business segments may recover at different paces, suggesting this turnaround won't be a quick fix.

Another double beat on both earnings and revenue would reinforce the narrative that Nike's strategy is working. A miss on either metric, however, could trigger a sell-off and raise fresh questions about the turnaround timeline.

Growth Catalysts on the Horizon

Strong third and fourth-quarter guidance could be the real stock mover here. Nike might point to the upcoming World Cup as a significant demand driver. The company is the official outfit partner for 11 World Cup teams, including high-profile squads like the United States, Brazil, France, England, and the Netherlands. That's the kind of global visibility that can translate into sales momentum.

Another potential storyline worth watching: athlete partnerships. Nike could be positioning itself to sign NBA star Steph Curry after he ended his long-standing relationship with rival Under Armour. Landing a marquee athlete like Curry would be both a competitive win and a marketing boost.

How the Stock Is Trading

Nike shares are up 0.6% to $66.05 on Thursday, trading within a 52-week range of $52.28 to $82.44. The stock is down 10.3% year-to-date in 2025, reflecting ongoing investor skepticism about the pace of the turnaround.