Nucor Corporation (NUE) shares took a hit Wednesday after the steelmaker served up fourth-quarter guidance that fell well short of what analysts were expecting. It's the kind of miss that tells you winter isn't just coming for everyone else.
The company is projecting fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.65 to $1.75 per share, meaningfully below the $2.18 consensus estimate. Management pointed to seasonal pressures and fewer shipping days as the main culprits, though they did throw investors a bone by noting that order backlogs are improving heading into 2026.
The weakness isn't confined to one corner of the business. Nucor expects earnings to decline sequentially across all three operating segments, which is about as comprehensive as bad news gets.
Breaking Down the Segment Pain
The steel mills segment is seeing lower volumes paired with margin compression, especially in sheet products. That's a tough combination when you're trying to maintain profitability in a seasonal downturn.
Over in the steel products segment, volumes are sliding and costs per ton are climbing. There's some relief from improved average pricing, but it's only a partial offset to the underlying pressures.
The raw materials segment is dealing with its own headache: two scheduled DRI facility outages that are expected to drag earnings lower for the quarter.
Still Buying Back Stock
Despite the near-term challenges, Nucor hasn't stopped returning cash to shareholders. The company repurchased roughly 0.7 million shares in the fourth quarter at an average price of $145.23. For the full year, that brings total buybacks to about 5.4 million shares at an average price of $128.66.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Management isn't throwing in the towel on the broader outlook. For 2026, the company expects gradual improvements in business conditions, supported by what they describe as favorable monetary, tax, and trade policies.
Nucor is scheduled to report its full fourth-quarter results after market close on January 26, 2026. As a reminder, the company beat expectations handily last quarter, reporting October earnings of $2.63 per share versus the $2.25 estimate, a 16.63% beat. Revenue came in at $8.52 billion, topping the consensus of $8.15 billion.
Price Action: NUE shares were down 2.01% at $159.00 on Wednesday.
