Labor Market Cools as Investors Brace for Key Inflation Data
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The Labor Market Is Definitely Cooling Down
November's unemployment rate hit 4.6%, which is the kind of number that makes everyone nod knowingly about the economy gradually losing steam. The ADP nonfarm payrolls data backed up that story, showing private sector hiring has slowed down considerably from where it was earlier in the year.
Nobody's panicking yet, but the data clearly supports the idea that we're looking at an economy that's cooling off rather than heating back up. Which, depending on your perspective, is either exactly what the Fed wants or a sign things are getting a bit too soft.
Tech Stocks Can't Catch a Break
Recent trading sessions have been choppy at best, and technology stocks have been getting hammered. The culprits? A growing consensus that interest rates will stay higher for longer, combined with the fact that everyone and their cousin was crowded into growth names.
Until there's more clarity on the macro picture, tech stocks are having trouble finding any kind of stable ground. The sector that led markets higher is now leading them in the other direction.
Thursday's CPI Report Is What Really Matters
All the speculation and hand-wringing now centers on Thursday morning's CPI report. This inflation print is going to be crucial for shaping both rate expectations and where markets head in the near term.
If the number comes in soft, markets could finally catch a break. But any upside surprise risks pouring gasoline on the volatility fire that's already burning. Investors are essentially holding their breath until those numbers hit.
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