Wall Street spent Tuesday wandering around without much conviction, as employment data delivered enough mixed signals to keep everyone guessing. Markets ended roughly where they started, which tells you pretty much everything about how traders interpreted the numbers.
The November jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls climbing by 64,000, topping the expected 50,000. Sounds decent, right? Except the unemployment rate simultaneously jumped to 4.6%, hitting the highest level since September 2021. So we're adding jobs, but more people are unemployed. The labor market, ladies and gentlemen.
October's delayed numbers added another layer of confusion. Thanks to the government shutdown pushing the data release back by over two months, we learned that October payrolls actually fell by 105,000. Before you panic, though, most of that drop came from 157,000 public sector layoffs. Private sector payrolls managed to add 52,000 jobs, which is fine if not exactly thrilling.
The Federal Reserve apparently wasn't moved by any of this. Futures markets continued pricing in just a 25% chance of another quarter-point rate cut at the January meeting, essentially unchanged from before the data dropped. When the jobs report doesn't shift Fed expectations, you know it's genuinely murky.
The Nasdaq 100 nudged 0.2% higher to close at 25,121, showing some resilience thanks to tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, meanwhile, posted marginal declines, barely worth mentioning except for completeness.
Small caps had a rougher go of it. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.6%, extending its losing streak to three consecutive sessions. Smaller companies continue to struggle in this environment, and Tuesday did nothing to reverse that trend.
Energy Markets Steal the Show
While equities drifted, oil prices grabbed everyone's attention in the worst way possible if you're long energy. West Texas Intermediate crude collapsed to $55 per barrel, down 2.2% on the day and marking a fourth straight session of losses. That's the lowest level we've seen since January 2021, which feels like a lifetime ago in market terms.
The culprit? Growing expectations that the war in Ukraine might actually be moving toward some kind of resolution. Normally that would be unambiguously good news, but for oil markets it raises the uncomfortable prospect of easing restrictions on Russian oil exports. Throw more supply into a market that's already dealing with a surplus, and prices have nowhere to go but down.
Energy stocks extended their painful slide, falling 2.2% as a sector. They've been consistently lagging the broader market, and Tuesday's action certainly didn't help matters.
Commodities and Crypto
In other commodity news, gold sat mostly unchanged at $4,300 per ounce, apparently unbothered by the day's developments. Silver dipped 0.6% to $62 per ounce, nothing particularly dramatic.
Cryptocurrencies managed a bit of a comeback after recent weakness. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed nearly 2%, pushing back above $87,000. Not a full recovery, but at least it's heading in the right direction for crypto bulls.
Tuesday's Market Scoreboard
Here's how the major indices closed by 12:10 p.m. ET:
- Nasdaq 100: 25,121.47, up 0.2%
- S&P 500: 6,806.44, down 0.1%
- Dow Jones: 48,302.97, down 0.2%
- Russell 2000: 2,515.75, down 0.6%
Looking at the major ETFs, the picture was similarly uninspiring. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) slipped 0.3% to $623.80. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 0.4% to $482.89. The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (QQQ) was essentially flat at $610.43.
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) underperformed its larger peers, sliding 0.84% to $249.81, reflecting that small-cap weakness.
Sector performance was all about energy's pain. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC) managed a 0.1% gain to lead the pack, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) got hammered, falling 2.6%.
Tuesday's Winners and Losers
Among Russell 1000 stocks, Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) surged 10.48% to lead gainers, followed by Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) up 9.07%, RH (RH) climbing 6.82%, Cognex Corporation (CGNX) adding 5.20%, and GCI Liberty Inc. (GLIBA) gaining 4.49%.
On the losing side, Corcept Therapeutics Inc. (CORT) dropped 8.19%, Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR) fell 7.64%, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp. (BAH) declined 6.35%, Dillard's Inc. (DDS) slid 6.31%, and Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) decreased 6.21%.
Tuesday was one of those sessions where the lack of direction was the direction. Mixed data, minimal movement, and everyone waiting for the next catalyst. Except in energy markets, where the direction was emphatically down.
