Bitcoin (BTC) has finally broken out of its holding pattern, and not in the fun direction. After weeks of consolidation, the cryptocurrency dropped below the $90,000 mark, leaving traders wondering if this is just a detour or the beginning of something messier.

Analyst Trader Mayne laid out the current situation in a recent podcast, describing the breakdown from what he called the triangle apex as a short-term turning point. The bigger picture "Santa Rally" narrative isn't dead on longer timeframes, he says, but the near-term path probably involves more pain as overleveraged positions get wiped out. Markets have a way of punishing people who get too greedy, and apparently now is that time.

The drop to $87,000 cleared the first major support level, but Mayne thinks there's more downside ahead. If U.S. equities stumble further, particularly a 2-3% pullback in the S&P 500, he sees a strong chance Bitcoin sweeps down to test the $80,000 lows. Risk assets tend to move together when things get uncomfortable, and crypto rarely escapes that gravitational pull.

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) is holding up surprisingly well. It's maintaining key monthly demand zones, and the ETH/BTC ratio is actually trending higher. Mayne acknowledged the upcoming "Fusaka" upgrade as a potential narrative driver, but he's skeptical that headlines matter as much as the technicals.

"If we bounce here, everyone will credit the upgrade," he said. "In reality, price was simply ready to bottom."

For now, the short-term trend favors the bears. Until Bitcoin breaks through its diagonal resistance and reclaims some key levels, sellers have the upper hand. Mayne's advice is straightforward: be patient. Either wait for a liquidity sweep near $80,000 or a confirmed breakout before jumping in.

There are also macro wildcards in play. The Bank of Japan has a policy decision this week, and if they raise rates, it could trigger another round of yen carry trade unwinding. That would add pressure to global risk assets right as U.S. non-farm payroll data hits. In other words, timing could get tricky.

So the Santa Rally might still be coming. It just might require a trip through $80,000 first to shake out the leverage before the sleigh can take off.