If you've been telling yourself that Bitcoin (BTC) is just taking a breather in an ongoing bull market, Marcus Thielen from 10x Research has some uncomfortable news: you're wrong. According to Thielen, Bitcoin isn't resting, it's firmly in bear market territory.

The Liquidity Story Doesn't Add Up

Speaking on a recent Coin Bureau podcast with co-founder and analyst Nic Puckrin, Thielen argued the real question isn't whether Bitcoin is bearish, but how long the pain will last. Those charts showing rising global liquidity and expectations around central bank rate cuts? Misleading, he says.

Here's the thing: liquidity on paper doesn't automatically translate into capital flowing into Bitcoin. Unlike equities that can rally on optimism alone, BTC needs sustained, real demand. And that demand has evaporated. Crypto-native inflows have collapsed from roughly $100 billion to $60 billion during the summer, then plunged to just $4 billion recently. Without meaningful inflows, Bitcoin simply lacks the fuel to push higher.

Where Did Everyone Go?

Retail investors—historically the lifeblood of major crypto rallies—are nowhere to be found. In South Korea, traditionally a hotspot for speculative trading, spot volumes remain muted. Funding rates are flat. There's no leverage frenzy, no speculative excess driving prices higher.

Instead, this cycle has been dominated by institutions, and Thielen believes they badly misplayed it. While Bitcoin ETFs attracted tens of billions of dollars, much of that capital entered at higher prices. As BTC drifted lower, institutions found themselves underwater. Many weren't even positioned for upside, instead selling covered calls to harvest yield—effectively capping price appreciation and suppressing volatility in the process.

Meanwhile, long-term holders quietly distributed supply. ETF inflows initially absorbed this selling, keeping prices stable. But after a hawkish Fed meeting in October, that delicate balance broke. ETFs turned into net sellers, leaving Bitcoin without a strong buyer base and triggering the slide from recent highs and the weak recovery since.

What Comes Next

Thielen warned that U.S. midterm elections present another risk factor. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled during midterm years, often peaking beforehand and entering prolonged drawdowns afterward—a pattern he believes is repeating now.

There is some good news: Thielen sees strong technical support near $70,000, which could limit downside. Bitcoin dominance is likely to keep rising, with only a few exceptions like BNB, while most altcoins are expected to underperform. He dismissed Solana hype and emphasized that Bitcoin's 21-week moving average remains his most reliable indicator.

The bottom line? This cycle belonged to institutions, but institutions alone couldn't ignite a true bull market. For that, crypto needs something it currently lacks: a new narrative, new builders, and a fresh wave of retail believers willing to take risk and dream again.