Gene Munster is back with his annual crystal ball routine, and the Deepwater Asset Management managing partner isn't holding back. This marks his 10th year of market predictions, and for 2026, he's serving up 11 bold calls that span everything from the Nasdaq's trajectory to which Magnificent Seven stock will claim victory when the year wraps up.

If you've followed Munster over the years, you know he's not afraid to put specific numbers and dates on his predictions. Some land, some don't, but the specificity makes them worth tracking. Let's dig into what he sees coming.

The AI Trade Still Has Legs

Munster's first prediction sets the tone: he expects the Nasdaq to finish 2026 up 10% or more, powered by artificial intelligence. According to Munster, the AI trade is "still early" and 2026 could mark the third year of a "5 year bull market." Interestingly, he thinks all the bubble chatter is actually healthy. "The current bubble talk is actually constructive because it keeps expectations in check and lowers the risk of an actual bubble forming," Munster said.

On the theme of AI infrastructure, Munster predicts hyperscaler capital expenditures will jump 50% in 2026. He's talking about the heavy hitters: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT). These companies are racing to build out AI capabilities, and Munster thinks current estimates for infrastructure spending are probably too conservative.

Here's another interesting angle: Munster believes the top private AI companies—think Databricks, Cursor, OpenAI, xAI, and Anduril—will stay on the sidelines and avoid going public in 2026. Why does this matter? "This is a positive sign for the AI trade given its unlikely the market peaks until these companies have gone public," he argues. In other words, as long as these unicorns remain private, the party probably continues.

Small Caps Get Their Moment

While the big tech names grab headlines, Munster predicts that small-cap technology stocks will actually outperform the broader tech market in 2026. Specifically, he thinks the Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology ETF (PSCT) will beat the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). That's a meaningful call, suggesting that investors might find better returns hunting in less obvious places rather than piling into the usual mega-cap suspects.

The Magnificent Seven Showdown

Now for the main event: which Magnificent Seven stock will reign supreme in 2026? Munster is making a nuanced call here. He predicts Apple Inc. (AAPL) will be the top performer in the first six months of 2026, driven by excitement around the iPhone 17 launch and growing optimism about a revamped Siri. Speaking of which, Munster specifically predicts Apple will launch a new, well-received Siri before April 30, 2026.

But when the final scoreboard lights up on December 31, 2026, Munster thinks Alphabet will have claimed the top spot among the Magnificent Seven. His reasoning centers on integration. "Google is in the strongest position when it comes to a fully integrated AI stack," Munster argues. He sees Alphabet's Gemini as a leading AI model that's experiencing rapid expansion across the company's product lineup.

Apple Leadership and Innovation

Beyond stock performance, Munster weighs in on Apple's leadership situation. Despite reports that the company is working on a succession plan for CEO Tim Cook, Munster predicts Cook will remain in the top role through "at least" the end of 2027. That's a vote of confidence in continuity at a critical time as Apple pushes deeper into AI.

Tesla's Autonomous Ambitions and Delivery Reality

Munster has two contrasting predictions for Tesla Inc. (TSLA). On the optimistic side, he believes Tesla will have fully autonomous robotaxi operations running in five cities without a safety driver by year-end. He even suggests they could launch robotaxis in eight to 10 cities total, with the majority operating without human oversight.

But then comes the sobering part: Munster predicts Tesla will miss delivery expectations in 2026. He forecasts deliveries that are flat to up just 5% compared to 2024 levels. That's a significant shortfall compared to Street estimates calling for 16% year-over-year growth from 2025, a year that already saw deliveries drop an estimated 7%. Still, Munster maintains that the bull case for Tesla isn't about vehicle deliveries—it's about "FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus."

Related to autonomous vehicles, Munster predicts that Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving company, will hit one million weekly paid rides by the end of 2026, marking another milestone in the commercial rollout of autonomous transportation.

How Did 2025 Predictions Hold Up?

Before we get too excited about 2026, it's worth checking the scorecard from this past year. Munster made 10 predictions for 2025 and gives himself 4.5 points out of 10.

His hits included correctly calling two 10% pullbacks for the Nasdaq, Apple and Tesla receiving tariff waivers, the IPO market accelerating to more than 250 listings, and 2025 being the year of custom silicon. He awards himself a half point on TikTok being sold, since the U.S. approved a sale even though the deal remains in limbo.

The misses? Bitcoin didn't hit $150,000 as he predicted. The Russell 2000 didn't outperform the S&P 500. Uber and Lyft stocks didn't underperform the Nasdaq. And Tesla didn't launch a $35,000 vehicle or gain EV market share in the U.S.

A 45% accuracy rate might not sound spectacular, but in the prediction game, being right nearly half the time while making specific, measurable calls is actually pretty respectable. Many pundits stick to vague pronouncements precisely to avoid being graded this harshly.

Why Munster's Predictions Matter

With a decade-long track record of putting his predictions in writing, Munster has built credibility in tech investing circles. He doesn't just make directional calls—he attaches specific numbers, dates, and outcomes that can be objectively measured. That kind of accountability is rare.

As we head into 2026, plenty of analysts and investors will share their outlooks. But Munster's combination of specificity, tech sector focus, and willingness to be graded on his calls makes his predictions worth watching. Whether he nails them or not, they provide a useful framework for thinking about where the tech market might be headed.

The common thread running through most of these predictions? The AI revolution is far from over, and the companies best positioned to capitalize on it—whether through infrastructure spending, integrated AI stacks, or autonomous applications—will likely be the ones leading the market higher in 2026.