Sometimes the streaming wars come down to something as simple as one player's knee. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) secured what looked like a Christmas Day goldmine when the NFL schedule came out: a primetime matchup featuring the Kansas City Chiefs, the league's most-watched team led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Fast forward to now, and that golden ticket is looking more like fool's gold.

When Your Star Attraction Falls Apart

Here's what happened. The Chiefs entered 2025 as Super Bowl favorites, having reached three consecutive championship games and won two of them. Then Sunday rolled around with a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and suddenly Kansas City's 6-8 record officially eliminated them from playoff contention. That's the first time they've missed the postseason in a decade of straight playoff appearances.

The situation got worse. Mahomes, who's been to the playoffs every single season since being drafted in 2017 and owns three Super Bowl rings, suffered an ACL injury near the end of that game. So Amazon's big Christmas showcase now features a team with nothing to play for and its franchise quarterback watching from the sideline.

The timing couldn't be more brutal. Amazon's 8 p.m. ET Christmas game pits the 12-2 Denver Broncos against the now-eliminated Chiefs. What should have been a division title showdown with massive playoff implications has turned into a game that matters for Denver's seeding and basically nothing else. The Chiefs will likely be resting players and thinking about next season.

Amazon's Streaming Success Story Hits a Speed Bump

This matters because Amazon has been crushing it with NFL viewership this season. Prime Video averaged 15.2 million viewers for Thursday Night Football, up 15% from last season. The December 4th Dallas Cowboys versus Detroit Lions game pulled 19.39 million viewers, the biggest audience since Amazon started streaming games in 2022. The Black Friday matchup between the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles drew 16.3 million viewers, jumping 21% from the previous year's Black Friday game.

The Chiefs themselves are ratings gold. Their Thanksgiving Day game against the Cowboys on CBS set a regular-season record with 57.2 million viewers. Amazon was counting on that star power to deliver a Christmas ratings bonanza.

Netflix and Disney Smell Opportunity

While Amazon watches its Christmas plans crumble, Netflix (NFLX) might be popping champagne. The streaming giant has two NFL games on Christmas Day: the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Washington Commanders at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the Detroit Lions versus Minnesota Vikings at 4:30 p.m. ET. Only the Lions have a winning record at 8-6, but those games face less competition during daytime hours.

Here's where it gets interesting. Right when Amazon kicks off its Broncos-Chiefs game at 8 p.m. ET, Netflix drops the second part of Stranger Things' fifth and final season—three episodes that fans have been waiting for. The first part of the season already set a Netflix record with 59.6 million views in its first week.

Originally, NFL fans probably planned to watch all the football first, then binge Stranger Things afterward. But with the Chiefs eliminated and Mahomes sidelined, that calculation changes. Why sit through a meaningless game when you could finally find out what happens to Eleven and the gang?

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) could also capitalize on Amazon's misfortune. Disney's ABC and ESPN are airing five NBA games on Christmas Day, including the Houston Rockets versus Los Angeles Lakers at 8:30 p.m. ET and the Minnesota Timberwolves versus Detroit Pistons at 10:30 p.m. ET. Both go head-to-head against Amazon's suddenly unappealing football matchup.

The Bottom Line for Streaming Competition

Amazon secured exclusive Thursday Night Football rights and premium holiday games precisely to drive Prime Video subscriptions and engagement. The Chiefs game was supposed to be a centerpiece moment, justifying the massive investment in NFL rights. Instead, it's become a case study in how unpredictable sports programming can be.

We'll find out on December 25th whether there's enough audience appetite for NBA basketball, underwhelming NFL football, and the Stranger Things finale to all score big numbers. But if you're Amazon, you're probably wishing you could go back in time and swap that Chiefs game for literally any other matchup. When your marquee team has nothing to play for and your star quarterback is injured, even Christmas can't save your ratings.